Super Bowl LV Breakdown: Chiefs vs Bucs
- iAmMizz!
- Feb 5, 2021
- 12 min read
Well, Tom Brady has done it again, he's maneuvered his way into another Super Bowl. For most of the football-watching world like myself, this comes as more of an annoyance than anything else because we had to hear about Brady's greatness for another two week span. All the anti-aging diet garbage, and the flashbacks to moments throughout his career, and Boston fans hopping on the Bucs bandwagon if they hadn't done it already (most did), and GOAT-talk. We get it, "he's so dedicated that he only drinks one beer per calendar year," good for him. All that aside, Brady is no longer a New England Patriot so I personally don't despise the guy anymore, I'm just sick of him like most football fans. The only good thing that comes from him making another Super Bowl is that it really sticks it to Bill Belichick and his massive ego (Bill will always be public enemy number one for Jets fans like myself), but that's a whole different story.
I know Aaron Rodgers vs Patrick Mahomes was the matchup I wanted, and I still believe those were the two best teams in the NFL this season (despite the Tampa Bay Buccaneers beating the Green Bay Packers twice this year). The Packers were building towards this opportunity, with multiple "almost" seasons of late. They deserved it, earned it even, while the Bucs look more like an NBA super-team or something constructed in Madden. I know better than most that Tampa Bay had a solid defense all season (I drafted that defense in most of my fantasy leagues). I know the influence of Tom Brady. I even grant that Bruce Arians and Todd Bowles make a formidable coaching duo. It still doesn't change the fact that the Bucs bought their way here. They didn't spend years and years building towards it like the Kansas City Chiefs in Super Bowl LIV or the Packers now. Brady, Antonio Brown, Rob Gronkowski, Leonard Fournette, Ndamukong Suh, Jason Pierre-Paul, Shaq Barrett. All of these veterans joined the Bucs through free agency in either 2019 or 2020, outside of JPP (2018). Even so, here they are, and all of a sudden Andy Reid, Patrick Mahomes and the big-bad defending Super Bowl Champs have become the heroes again.
All year there was talk about which team might be able to knock off the Chiefs in the AFC, but in the end there wasn't a single team that stood a chance. The Buffalo Bills ended up making it the furthest, but they didn't even come close to completing the task in the AFC Championship. The Cleveland Browns had a shot, but they couldn't even beat KC with Mahomes in the locker room. Throughout the entire season it almost seemed as if the Chiefs started to become a team to root against, rather than root for. NFL fans starting hoping they might fail. I mean that's generally what happens when you become too dominant, fans of other teams start to turn against you. In a championship matchup with any other franchise in the NFC besides Brady's Bucs, I almost guarantee that would have happened in KC's quest for two straight. They would have become the villain, and whether is was the Packers or Saints or Rams or whoever, the NFC representative would have been the underdog that stole America's heart, but not against Brady. All that goes out the window against Brady, and as I said before, Reid and Mahomes become the white knights again, the heroes that all the "Brady haters" will entrust with one job on Sunday... win.
2020-21 Super Bowl NFL Rankings Comparison
(lower rank always represents more positive statistic)
Passing (OFF YPG): KC 1st, TB 2nd
Rushing (OFF YPG): KC 16th, TB T-28th
Interceptions Thrown: KC T-2nd (least), TB 16th
Offensive Fumbles Lost: KC T-14th (least), TB 4th
Sacks Allowed: KC 5th, TB 4th
Offensive Penalty Yardage: KC 27th (least), TB 14th
Passing Allowed (DEF YPG): KC 14th, TB 21st Rushing Allowed (DEF YPG): KC 21st, TB 1st
Defensive Interceptions: KC T-5th, TB T-7th
FORCED Fumbles: KC T-25th, TB T-8th
Defensive Sacks: KC 19th, TB T-4th
Defensive Penalty Yardage: KC 17th (least), TB 31st
Field Goal Percentage: KC 9th, TB 11th
Punting (Net Average): KC 16th, TB 17th
Kick Return Average: KC T-4th, TB 19th
Punt Return Average: KC 26th, TB T-24th
Total Points Scored Per Game: KC T-4th, TB 2nd
Total Points Allowed Per Game: KC 10th, TB 9th
Despite what I had to say in the introduction above, this is actually a pretty ideal matchup for the NFL. The legendary six-time champion QB (four SB MVP's and three NFL MVP's) in possibly his final Super Bowl ever against the future legend that could someday break his records (one MVP, SB MVP and SB title in his first three seasons, going for two rings in his first four). Will the actual game live up to the matchup though? Tampa actually holds narrow leads in both points scored and points allowed per game this season, but they're still three-point underdogs (even with the home field advantage for the first time in Super Bowl history). The stats seem to balance out otherwise, except in special teams where KC dominates TB on paper. Let's take a deeper look at my five keys to the big game, and my predictions for who will win plus player awards.
6 Key Super Bowl Factors
1. Coaching
Coaching is ALWAYS a major factor when it comes to football, even with Tom Brady and Patrick Mahomes under center. Ironically, each team has struggled on the disciplinary side in 2020, ranking high in penalty yardage on opposite sides of the ball. The Bucs D ranked second to last in penalty yardage allowed, which could be something to exploit if you're Mahomes and this ridiculous passing attack (more on that later). The flag that they drew the most was actually offsides, which makes sense due to this aggressive pass-rush. The Chiefs offense ranked near the bottom in penalties as well, and for Kansas City the offensive line is mostly to blame (4th most false starts, 6th most holdings). Those numbers aside, both of these coaching staffs are filled with highly regarded names. I already mentioned Bruce Arians and Todd Bowles earlier. The Bucs HC Arians runs the offense with the help of former NFL QB and rising star Byron Leftwich. Arians came out of retirement to take on the TB coaching job in 2019. This is his first Super Bowl as a Head Coach, but he has won two Super Bowls as an assistant. Bowles is experienced in his own right, as a former HC of the New York Jets and one of the best defensive coordinators in the game today. The two were a competent pair in Arizona before reuniting in Tampa. On the Chiefs side of the ball you have an all-time coaching legend in Andy Reid. Everyone's favorite Hawaiian shirt loving, face-shield wearing, mustache rocking man finally won his first ring last season. Now he's back for an attempt at the rare NFL back-to-back title run. Perennial head coaching candidate Eric Bienemy and former New York Giants interim HC Steve Spagnuolo are his coordinators, another well-respected unit.
Here's what we know about these two groups. Experience goes to Kansas City. This entire coaching staff was in this exact position a year ago, and they won, the Tampa Bay coaching staff has never made it this far (aside from Brady who kind of acts as a player-coach of sorts). The Bucs run a 3-4 defense that relies heavily on its run-stuffing front (led by Ndamukong Suh and Vita Vea) and its pass-rushing/play-making linebackers (Shaq Barrett, JPP, Devin White and Lavonte David). Their weakness is undoubtedly their secondary, which tends to be all or nothing. The Chiefs run a 4-3 defense that blitzes heavily from many different places. Chris Jones is easily one of the biggest game-wreckers in football at DT, despite getting less hype than Aaron Donald, and players like Frank Clark and Tyrann Mathieu always seem to make an impact in big games. Their corners fit Spagnuolo's scheme well, even if they aren't household names, and this defense tends to be much stingier than it looks from afar. The offensive units are even more similar. Both rely on the pass, with four or five options for each quarterback that seem interchangeable at times. KC relies more on speed however, while TB relies on precision. I give the coaching edge to the Chiefs.
2. Effective Pass Rush
Another common key to the game of football. As mentioned, both of these teams depend heavily on pass rush. The Bucs use their elite linebacking core to hassle opposing signal-callers, and the Chiefs specialize in blitz packages that keep the offense off-guard (and bull-rushes led by Jones himself). I do think both of these pass-rushes will play a large role on Sunday, but they are more likely to lead to a major turnover than a low-scoring field position game. Of note is the current state of the KC offensive line. Both Mitchell Schwartz and Eric Fisher will likely miss the Super Bowl, leaving the Chiefs without their two starting tackles. Being that most of Tampa's pressure comes off the edge, this could be a major problem. I expect Reid and Bienemy to have a plan in place for this possibly detrimental issue, and it might involve hefty helping of Travis Kelce. On the other side of the ball we see an interesting rematch of sorts. Tom Brady against Steve Spagnuolo, the architect of the Giants defense that shut down Brady's undefeated Patriots in Super Bowl XLII. Spags and Brady have each gotten the better of one another in the past, but who better than to spot the Chiefs' blitzers than the most intelligent QB in the game. Due to the injuries and experience, I have to give the edge to the Bucs here.
3. Which Defense Can Make the Big Stop?
This has the makings of an offensive Super Bowl (although you never know). It will help that the Bucs have the fans on their side (even if they are limited due to the pandemic), and their pass rush may hurry Mahomes throughout this game, but I actually don't think their defense matches up well with KC otherwise. The Chiefs pass first and run second, when the opposing defense is already on its heels. That takes away Tampa's greatest defensive strength, the number one ranked run defense in football. Even if this pass rush has their way with KC's offensive line, I'm not sure it will matter if their secondary cannot stick with the Chiefs weapons. Who on this Bucs roster can guard Tyreek Hill (he torched them last time)? Or Travis Kelce for that matter. I like safety Antoine Winfield Jr., but the rookie is banged up and not on the level of a Kelce type when healthy. If it's David or White that matches up with the All-Pro tight end, does that take Tampa out of its comfort zone defensively? Sammy Watkins is said to be returning. Assuming he does and Demarcus Robinson plays, this Chiefs offense just has too many weapons for this Bucs secondary that is shallow at corner. I think Tampa's best chance is if they can force turnovers (like they did to Green Bay in the NFC Championship). If the Chiefs play turnover free though, I see them running this defense ragged over the course of four quarters. Like against Buffalo or even San Francisco last Super Bowl, if KC starts slow don't count them out, expect them to build momentum and run wild late in the game. While I like how Brady and this Bucs offense has come together in the playoffs (especially if Antonio Brown plays), you can see that TB12's age has shown at times. His arm strength has not been there in the second half (three bad-looking interceptions last week that almost let Green Bay back in the game), and they need to churn out longer drives with short passing and some sort of rushing attack if they want to have any sustained success (compared to the Chiefs explosive attack that can score at any moment). Kansas City's defense has come up in the clutch more often than Tampa, with consistency on both sides of the ball fueling their success. I think they are more likely to make the stop when it counts. Edge Chiefs.
4. Separation By Playmakers
Both of these teams have a surplus of dynamic playmakers, you might even argue that the Bucs have more. I mean Mike Evans, Chris Godwin and Antonio Brown at wide receiver? Then add Scotty Miller, Rob Gronkowski, Cameron Brate, Leonard Fournette and Ronald Jones to the mix. On the Chiefs' side you have the aforementioned Hill and Kelce, plus players like Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Darrell Williams, Le'Veon Bell (should he play), Sammy Watkins, Mecole Hardman, Demarcus Robinson and Byron Pringle. Mahomes is the more talented QB at this stage in their respective careers, but can the Bucs playmakers provide the separation needed to bring Brady up to speed with the superstar under center? This one is a wash for me, but gameday will decide a winner in this category as well, and the winner here may just win the Lombardi.
5. Bucs Run Game
I mentioned before that Tampa doesn't match up well with KC on defense, and they don't really on offense either. We already know that the way you beat the Chiefs is with a time-consuming run-heavy offense. The Las Vegas Raiders did this better than anyone twice against KC this year (won one, lost a heartbreaker in game two). Unfortunately for the Bucs and their 28th ranked rushing attack, this is not their strong suit. They would rather go toe-to-toe with the high-octane offense of the Chiefs, a strategy that doesn't usually bode well for Kansas City opponents (just look at how Buffalo fared in the AFC Championship with a pass-heavy approach). It can be Leonard Fournette or Ronald Jones or a combination of the two, doesn't matter, but the Bucs need to establish a successful run game if they want to beat the defending champs. Without it, I'm not sure this game is even close.
6. Turning Turnovers Into Points
Another more typical factor in any football game is the turnover battle. It's not only forcing the turnovers, but turning them into points. The Bucs would not have defeated the Packers if not for the turnovers that they forced. They also would not have won if not for their ability to manufacture touchdowns from those takeaways. The Packers defense gave Aaron Rodgers just as many opportunities in the second half, but Green Bay punted the ball back to Tampa more often than not. I doubt that Mahomes will throw too many interceptions, he rarely does in the spotlight, but the Bucs can make an impact via the fumble. They have had success forcing them all season (including against GB), and Kansas City has been susceptible to fumbles throughout the year. If they do, which isn't necessarily likely, they have to be just as profitable turning those turnovers into scores. I say this because on the flip side of the ball you have a defense that produces interceptions (Brady has also thrown them at a much higher rate), and an offense that cashes in on almost every opportunity. Despite Tampa's success in this area against Green Bay, I still have to give the edge to KC here based on prior performance.
OFFENSIVE MVP (non-QB): Chiefs
Travis Kelce, TE: Although it could easily be Tyreek Hill again, I expect that the speedy wide-out will get more attention being that he had over 200 yards receiving the first time these two teams met this season. With the Bucs bringing pressure and the Chiefs offensive line bruised and battered I'm counting on Kelce to have another monster outing. Mahomes tends to find his favorite target more often than not when scrambling and improvising. That could lead to another double-digit reception game for the tight end, and at least one touchdown (Kelce always seems to score a TD).
OFFENSIVE MVP (non-QB): Bucs
Chris Godwin, WR: Although Tampa really needs someone like Fournette to step up, Chris Godwin is the most likely man to do so heading into the Super Bowl. The possession receiver has quickly become Brady's most reliable weapon after returning from various injuries early in the season. With the blitz as a definite factor, short and swift route-running will be needed to overcome it, and that plays to Godwin's skillset more than the rest of the Bucs arsenal. Mike Evans is usually better downfield or near the endzone and Antonio Brown/Scotty Miller have a tendency to catch a deep ball here or there, but Godwin has been the most consistent force throughout a majority of the Tampa's recent victories. His typical line is five catches for anywhere from 80 to 130 yards receiving. The Tampa running backs may also be called upon often in the passing game.
DEFENSIVE MVP: Chiefs
Frank Clark, DE: I could go Chris Jones or Tyrann Mathieu here, sure, but that would be too easy. Looking at the Tampa front, they're actually stronger up the middle than on the ends (where rookie Tristan Wirfs and below-average left tackle Donovan Smith start). Jones will always be a game-changer, but he might draw a double team from the very capable Ali Marpet and Ryan Jensen. Clark is the guy that needs to step up and force pressure off the edge, along with Tanoh Kpassagnon and Alex Okafor. This is the best way to beat Tom Brady, since he cannot really move at this point in his career. A collapsing pocket, blitz, or bull-rush up the gut can completely immobilize this Bucs offense.
DEFENSIVE MVP: Bucs
Shaq Barrett, EDGE: Jason Pierre-Paul is questionable, but this includes him too assuming he plays. Tampa needs their edge rushers to have their best games of the season if they want to pull off this upset, and Barrett has been the man that has stolen the spotlight in the past. In 2019-20, Barrett had a career record 19.5 sacks, but he only tallied eight sacks in 2020. So far he has added three more to that total in the postseason. If Barrett and JPP can take advantage of the Chiefs injuries at tackle, this game becomes a lot more challenging to predict.
SUPER BOWL LV PREDICTION: Chiefs Win 31-20
You might have seen this one coming based on how this article started slanting, but it's really hard for me to see the Chiefs losing this game outside of some sort of Tom Brady miracle. They have the better offense, better playmakers, better corners, better special teams, better coaching and better quarterback (at this stage in their careers). The one X-factor for Tampa besides home field advantage is their pass rush, but KC generates pressure of their own so it shouldn't dramatically affect the outcome. I don't foresee a blowout or some insane shootout with no defense whatsoever (because Super Bowls rarely play out like that), but I also don't think Kansas City sweats this one out like they did against San Francisco last season. Picked against them last year and most of this year, but I won't make that mistake again, Chiefs win their second straight NFL title.
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