Super Bowl LIV Breakdown: Chiefs vs 49ers
- iAmMizz!
- Feb 1, 2020
- 11 min read
Miami and the NFL's 54th Super Bowl are almost here. As usual, after about two weeks of discussion and predictions, you have probably heard enough about the match-up to make your head spin. So being that you're already in full delirium in anticipation of the big game, why not one more breakdown before kickoff...
Personally I have heard it all. At first the predictions I was getting were overwhelming in favor of the Kansas City Chiefs because of Patrick Mahomes (last year's MVP and a man with a golden arm that has the lore of a Disney prophecy). Then the San Francisco fans raged back, citing that defense wins championships. I've heard about the Chiefs' defensive deficiencies. I've heard about how KC's defense is the real game-changer, and how 49ers quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo cannot pass in the clutch. I've heard it all and I've even said some of it myself, but after careful thought and deliberation, (for those who care) here is my final word on LIV.
2019-2020 NFL Rankings (lower rank always represents more positive statistic):
CHIEFS_________5th________Passing (Offensive YPG)________13th__________49ERS
_______________23rd_______Rushing (Offensive YPG)________2nd________________
_______________2nd____Interceptions Thrown(lower=better)____T-18th______________
_______________T-10th___Offensive Fumbles(lower=better)_____T-23rd______________
_______________T-3rd_________Sacks ALLOWED_____________T-12th______________
_______________7th_________Hits on QB ALLOWED__________8th________________
_______________T-7th_________Offensive TD's (Scored)________2nd_______________
_______________8th_________Passing (Defensive YPG)_________1st________________
_______________26th________Rushing (Defensive YPG)_________17th______________
_______________T-16th________FORCED Fumbles_____________5th________________
_______________T-5th________Defensive Interceptions__________T-17th______________
_______________11th_________Defensive Sacks_______________T-5th_______________
_______________T-8th_______Defensive TD's (Scored)____________5th_______________
_______________6th________Field Goal Percentage____________23rd_______________
_______________23rd______Punting (By Net Average)__________T-12th______________
_______________T-5th_____Offensive Kick Return Average________27th_______________
_______________19th_____Offensive Punt Return Average________T-9th________________
_______________5th_______Total Points Scored Per Game________2nd_______________
_______________7th_______Total Points Allowed Per Game_______8th________________
The FIVE key factors:
1. COACHING- A lot of times the players get the focus, and of course they deserve it, but football more than any other sport is one and lost by coaching. Play-calling will always be an enormous factor, but also preparation and planning during this two week hiatus. The New England Patriots have (by most public opinion) the greatest NFL coach in history. He was won many Super Bowls because of his diligence and unparalleled ability to exploit the weaknesses of his opponent.
Having said that, this Super Bowl is a match-up of two famous head coaches in their own right. One is a top regular season HC all-time, Andy Reid (Chiefs), that has never won the Lombardi Trophy (SB title). The other is much younger and still early-on in his bright career, Kyle Shanahan (Niners), but comes from a legendary coaching family and is already respected as an offensive genius around the league. Reid is also an offensive guru. He has spent most of his football years with Philadelphia and Kansas City, and has always been known for prolific passing. This Chiefs team is no different (it might even be the most dynamic passing unit he has ever had), but despite the league's shift to air attacks in the recent decades, ground game tends to work better in the playoffs (due to its consistency in any and all weather conditions that may arise in January). Reid has had trouble early in games, both this playoff campaign and past ones, which can sometimes happen with pass-heavy playbooks that need chemistry and synchronization. After the Super Bowl bye week, you wonder if this Chiefs offensive unit will be able to come out guns blazing. Shanahan is a new-school coach with an old-school mentality. He loves to put an emphasis on running the ball and blocking well (whether for passing, running, or designed screens). This season he has utilized a plethora of rushers, all of which have been successful, which opens up the play action passing game. This type of offense usually takes less time to work out any kinks. Like Reid, Shanahan is also looking for some redemption after being a large part of one of the greatest blown Super Bowl leads in history (he was the offensive coordinator for Atlanta in the Falcons versus Patriots SB three years ago), a 25 point comeback by New England. Of note are also defensive coordinators Steve Spagnuolo (Super Bowl champ as defensive coordinator of the NY Giants back in 2008) and Robert Saleh (Super Bowl champ as defensive quality control coach of the Seattle Seahawks in 2014). Spags is a veteran like Reid (also worked together in Philly for many years before the DC went to NYG), he uses a blitz heavy 4-3 front, that relies on good coverage and putting pressure on the quarterback. Saleh is part of the youth movement, like Shanahan, but is already a hot choice for a future head coaching opportunity in his third year as a coordinator. He also runs a 4-3 with a dominant front four pass-rush and a hard-hitting secondary that is reminiscent of the Seahawks' Legion of Boom. They generally don't blitz much, because they don't need to, which allows the bulk of the 49ers unit to drop back in coverage.
2. WINNING THE FIRST QUARTER- Many will point out Mahomes late-game heroics to lead his team back from the dead against Houston and Tennessee, but San Francisco is a team built to run circles around those two (the Niners would likely bully both the Texans and Titans if they had played either in a head-to-head this season). The Chiefs CANNOT fall behind against this team that pounds the football downfield with the run, and a coach dead-set on never surrendering another lead in the Super Bowl. They also cannot expect to score so quickly against a San Francisco defense that gave up the least passing yards per game in the NFL this season. On the other side of the coin, if KC can jump out to an early lead, they might be able to throw SF off their game and make them pass the ball more than they would prefer (like the Titans did against the Ravens).
3. RUN GAME/PRESSURING THE QB- As fans of the sport should know, the run game goes hand-in-hand with the pass. You always want to keep the defense off-guard in football, and you can do that with a balanced attack that mixes up play-calling. Here's where I get nervous from a Chiefs' perspective. Their offensive line will not be able to provide a run game because I do not believe they can win the battle against this Niner's front four.
Led by Nick Bosa, DeForest Buckner, Arik Armstead, and former Chief Dee Ford (with Solomon Thomas as an alternate this San Fran D-Line includes five former first round draft picks), this unit not only terrorizes the quarterback, they stifle the run. Remember, this is the same group that held Vikings' Dalvin Cook to 18 yards rushing in the divisional round. Minnesota had one of the top rushing offenses this season going into that game, the Chiefs ranked 23rd in that department. If the Chiefs abandon the run at any point in this game, guys like Bosa and Ford will have free reign to sell out and rush Mahomes, who was tied for 3rd-least sacked quarterback in 2019-20. Mahomes is better than most under pressure, but he's still human, and would love some time to throw. For the Niners, people forget that balance has been their game all season on offense. Yes they run the ball exceptionally well (ranked 2nd in yards per game behind the Ravens), but it's like people forgot Jimmy G has passed the ball at a very high level. With 27 TD's and 13 into's this season, and a 69% completion rating, Garoppolo has been a model of efficiency (similar to the type of season his "mentor," Tom Brady might have). I like their chances of exploiting KC's blitz with designed screens and trick plays, because their steady run game will provide the opportunity to do so. With both defenses ranking in the top 11 at sacking the QB this season, keeping the blitzers off-balance will be crucial.
4. QUARTERBACK MOBILITY- If there is one thing the Niners D has struggled with at times this season, it is a mobile quarterback. Lamar Jackson, Kyler Murray, and Russell Wilson were three of the most successful QB's to play San Fran in 2019. Having said that, you might give the Chiefs a plus here, although Mahomes is by no means a run-first signal caller. Garoppolo actually has more rushing attempts this season, shockingly enough, but Mahomes averaged much more yards per carry at 5.1, compared to Jimmy's low 1.3 YPC. 'Showtime' Mahomes will definitely look to use that golden arm first and foremost, but if he needs to take off, he should... especially if his receivers can spread the coverage downfield and open up room to scramble.
5. SPECIAL TEAMS/TURNOVERS- Two things that often decide the outcome of most close NFL contests, the special teams head-to-head and the turnover battle. Turnovers are more straight forward, both defenses will look to make their mark on this game by forcing a key change in possession. The Chiefs have done this well via the interception this season, ranking 5th, while the Niners have been better at causing fumbles to occur (also 5th, respectively).
The special teams match-up is more elaborate, because it involved returning, punting, kicking, open-field tackling, blocks, and muffs (when a return man fumbles a kick... just about the most frustrating thing you can witness your team do in a football game). I give KC the clear nod in the return game, with track-star speed and breakout ability from players like Mecole Hardman and Tyreek Hill if needed. They also have the more experienced punter with Dustin Colquitt, even though Aussie Mitch Wishnowsky (a rookie) has been much better statistically this season. It's a bit of a flip-flop in the field goal department, as the better kicker right now is Chiefs' youngster Harrison Butker, but San Fran have the long-time accurate vet in Robbie Gould who's had an uncharacteristically rough season. Finally, San Francisco has blocked two kicks this season, while Kansas City has blocked one.
PLAYERS I EXPECT TO HAVE INFLUENTIAL GAMES (NO QB's):
1. George Kittle (SF)- The in-your-face tight end hasn't done much this playoffs in terms of receiving, but neither has anyone else on the Niners because they have barely thrown the ball. He has still been a monster on the blocking side, helping that fearsome O-Line plow through Green Bay and Minnesota units. Tomorrow, I expect Kittle to do it all. The Chiefs have been bad at guarding TE's this season and Jimmy G should end up throwing the ball more than he did in their first two playoff games. Kittle should be a favorite target, per usual, and has an outside shot at Super Bowl MVP.
2. Travis Kelce (KC)- Keeping it with the tight end position for a second, being that these two are the best in the NFL right now. I think Mahomes will be under a lot more pressure in this game than he's used to (anyone remember earlier this season when the Chiefs lost a couple in a row against the Colts and Texans because Patty had no time to throw?), and Kelce will be targeted a ton as a short pass safety option. On a similar note, I do not expect Chiefs downfield receivers like Watkins, Robinson, and Hardman to have great games unless they get their hands on a deep ball TD.
3. Damien Williams (KC)- Let me be clear, I do not think he will run the ball well at all. In fact, I think the Chiefs will struggle to run in general. Having said that, Williams is the best pass catcher of the KC running back group right now and I expect Mahomes to dump the ball to him whenever he is in trouble. From a fantasy perspective, Williams has proven to be a PPR nightmare for opponents that finds the endzone both on the ground and through the air.
4. Deebo Samuel (SF)- Shanahan LOVES utilizing his rookie WR who has the physicality of a rusher after catching the ball. Who knows if it will be on a crossing route, designed WR run, screen set-up, or deep ball, but Deebo will get important touches in this game and he really can do it all. While the similar-type Chiefs' star, Tyreek Hill, will likely be double-teamed most of the way during the Super Bowl, Samuel should be able to find open space with the Chiefs D worrying about stopping the run, Kittle, Emmanuel Sanders, and Kendrick Bourne all at once.
5. 49ers RB Stable (SF)- I'm not positive it will be Raheem Mostert who becomes the guy in this game. He is certainly the favorite after his record-setting week against the Packers, but Shanahan has been unpredictable in deciding which RB he'll use most. If Mostert falters early or fumbles (which has proven deadly for SF rushers in the past), I could see Tevin Coleman or Matt Breida getting a shot. Even Jeff Wilson Jr, Deebo Samuel, or fullback Kyle Juszczyk could get involved on a TD run or reception. Whoever it is carrying the rock, this juggernaut rushing attack will produce 100+ yards on the ground.
6. DEFENSIVE MVP: Chris Jones (KC)- The typical choice has been safety Tyrann Mathieu when talking about which Chiefs defender has a shot at MVP, and trust me I don't disagree. He is the biggest play-maker on their defense without a doubt. I also don't think Jones has any shot at MVP, because a defensive tackle would never win that award, but Jones still may be the most important player for the Chiefs on Sunday. Kansas City MUST limit this rushing attack, and the All-Pro DT is their best shot at clogging the lane and making Jimmy G beat them through the air.
7. DEFENSIVE MVP: Richard Sherman (SF)- I know Nick Bosa has become the flashy name for this 49ers D, but Sherman's veteran presence and shutdown ability at corner has been as vital to their team success as any player this season. I'm not sure if Sherman will travel with Tyreek Hill or not (he doesn't generally leave his post on the outside), but no matter who he is up against they need a lock-down day by the former Super Bowl champ, and I don't doubt he will deliver. If the coverage can give Bosa and friends some time to get at Mahomes, it could be an ugly game for the former MVP... I even like Sherman to get an interception in this one.
MY PICK:
Well I think I've done enough sizing up. This match-up is as close a call as any I can remember in my lifetime. People have deemed it the greatest offense (KC) against the greatest defense (SF), but the irony is that San Francisco actually scored more points per game this season. Similarly, Kansas City actually allowed slightly less total points per game. The coaching is superb on both sides, but I'll take Shanahan. For the three sides of the ball, I would give the check mark to KC in the special teams department (which is more important than people think), but otherwise I like SF more as a unit both offensively and defensively. Mahomes is without a doubt the best NFL player purely based on talent in this game, but pound for pound I think the 49ers have the better team, and this is a team sport after all.
This Niners just reminds me of the Patriots dynasty which has plagued my football watching career. They move the ball with balance offensively. They have a smart QB who isn't necessarily the most athletic person on the field (or even close), but one that knows how to read defenses, win games, and makes the clutch throws when he needs to. They have a GRONK-type tight end who can block as well as he catches. They have a top five offensive line, and a top five defensive line. They have at least one shut-down corner, which was a common theme for Patriot championship rosters. They have a veteran proven kicker. They actually have a better pass-rush than any Pats team ever probably had. And finally, they have a mastermind of a coach who has studied this league all his life. The Chiefs have some of these things, but they remind me much more of the high-octane offensive favorite that seems to catch everyone's eye most years. Cam Newton's Panthers (shut down by Denver D), Peyton Manning's Broncos year one (shut down by Seahawks D), Matt Ryan's Falcons (choked in 2nd half), and 2019's LA Rams offense (shut down by Pats D). These great offenses have not won the big game in recent history, let alone NFL history (which has been even more defensive). Not only that, I personally have been high on the Niners since preseason, go ahead and check my blog if you doubt it. The one disclaimer was that they needed to stay healthy. They have stayed healthy and the results have followed as this team has flourished as the most consistent in the NFL by far (all season long). I picked them to win the West this Summer, I picked them to win Super Bowl LIV just before the playoffs began, and I'm sticking with them now.
49ers are victorious in Super Bowl LIV over Chiefs, 33-28, tying the Patriots and the Steelers for the all-time record for total franchise Super Bowl championships at 6.
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