Quarterback Roulette: 2020 Offseason Could See More "Franchise" QB's On the Move than Ever
- iAmMizz!
- Feb 7, 2020
- 14 min read
In many ways, the last couple NFL seasons have begun a transitional changing of the guards at one position in particular... the Quarterback.
Yes, an era is coming to a close, and what a legendary period it has been. The era of the Manning brothers, now that Eli has decided to follow his older brother Peyton into retirement. Eli was part of a 2004 draft class that gave us three consistent 15-season franchise QB's (Philip Rivers and Ben Roethlisberger being the other two). This has been an era of record breakers like Drew Brees, underdogs like Russell Wilson, and ability we had never seen before like Donovan McNabb and Aaron Rodgers. This was even an era of change, with Michael Vick, and it still is the era of the greatest of all-time, until Tom Brady decides to call it quits. It was an era unlike an other at the position... but as the expression goes, all good things must come to an end, and as we near the free agency window we are starting to realize that the NFL might look very different in 2020.
The New Wave:
Before we discuss all the possible upcoming shifts of franchises at QB, let's recap some of the recent changes. It's hard to figure out where an era ends and the next begins because there generally is no defined line in the history books, but an easy place to look is to "greatest." Brady and Peyton, Brees and Rodgers... Patrick Mahomes.
Now Mahomes didn't exactly start this next generation, but he does seem to be the next all-time great in the making with an MVP and a Super Bowl in his first two full seasons. Some players will always get caught in between eras, but a nice jumping off point for me is the 2016 NFL Draft, because it became one of the most power-packed quarterback classes since '04. Jared Goff and Carson Wentz were the headliners, but Dak Prescott was the diamond in the rough selected in the fourth round. There were also a ton of busts like Paxton Lynch and Christian Hackenberg, plus a semi-success story like Jacoby Brissett, but anyway you slice it this draft had QB HYPE. The following draft was even better... Mitch Trubisky (top drafted but worst performing so far), Patrick Mahomes, and Deshaun Watson. The star prospect potential didn't stop there, 2018 then became hailed as the next generational quarterback class (before we realized how tremendous Mahomes was). It produced Baker Mayfield, Sam Darnold, Josh Allen, Josh Rosen (bust so far), and Lamar Jackson (this year's MVP). Last year added some more young talent in Kyler Murray, Daniel Jones, Dwayne Haskins, and Drew Lock... and 2020 looks to add some more in this ushering in of the future. Some of the names to watch are Joe Burrow, Tua Tagovailoa, Justin Herbert, Jordan Love, Jake Fromm, Jacob Eason, Bryce Perkins, and Jalen Hurts. All will hope to make a name for themselves in the pros, but we'll see just how many do. In the meantime, let the 2020 quarterback shuffle begin.
QB Roulette:
(every team with even the slightest chance of change at signal caller, grouped by likeliness)
EXPECTED
1. Cincinnati Bengals; with the first overall pick in the NFL Draft, Andy Dalton's days are numbered in Cincy. Joe Burrow is the consensus number one after his prolific season for LSU, and the fit seems like destiny with Burrow being a native of Ohio. The only thing stopping this move is a Eli Manning type demand from Burrow, which would mean panic for the Bengals.
2020 Options- Draft Burrow, keep and start Dalton until Burrow is ready, or trade Dalton and let Joe takeover week one of next season.
My Pick to Start- Joe Burrow (no reason to delay the inevitable).
2. Los Angeles Chargers; Philip Rivers has been the quarterback of the Chargers for almost my entire football fandom lifetime, ever since Eli demanded that trade back in the '04 draft. He has always been known as a gunslinger, throwing for over 59,000 total yards with a career completion percentage of 64.7 and a QBR of 95.1. In 2019 Rivers looked shot, tying his second worst interception total of 20 for the season, and it looks like his days in California are finally over as his whole family has already moved to Florida this off-season.
2020 Options- 6th Overall Pick (draft Herbert or Tua if he drops that low), Tyrod Taylor (former starter, last year's backup), Target a Big Name (Tom Brady did grow up in California).
My Pick to Start- Cam Newton, the Chargers miss on Brady and instead scramble to trade for the second biggest name on the market. Newton will fit with a back like Ekeler, who is a poor man's version of CMC, and is a definite upgrade on Rivers or Taylor. Also have them drafting Herbert.
3. Carolina Panthers; with the new head coach Matt Rhule looking to tear it all down and rebuild this franchise in Carolina (like he is known for doing with college programs), I just don't see Cam Newton with the Panthers next season. Now Cam would have to be traded, unlike Rivers who is a free agent, but with so many teams in quarterback flux, now is the time for Rhule to make his move. Backup turned starter, Kyle Allen, is also an exclusive-rights free agent this off-season, but I could definitely see him returning to some extent alongside bust draft pick Will Grier (at least to compete throughout camp).
2020 Options- Kyle Allen (re-sign), 7th Overall Pick (unlikely after just missing on Grier, unless someone they really like is on the board), Target Younger Free Agent or Trade (Teddy Bridgewater, Marcus Mariota, Derek Carr, Jameis Winston, Ryan Tannehill, etc.).
My Pick to Start- Derek Carr, Rhule needs a steady QB to keep Carolina competitive as the turnover occurs, I feel Carr is just that (although he doesn't excite a fan base). Kyle Allen also re-signed.
4. Miami Dolphins; the Phins aren't losing some franchise mainstay this off-season (technically you could argue that happened last season when they shipped Ryan Tannehill to Tennessee), and there's a good chance Ryan Fitzpatrick returns to begin the 2020 season as Brian Flores' starting QB, but they are also a heavy favorite to draft their future at 5th overall. The Josh Rosen experiment ended almost as quickly as it began, I still think Tua makes sense here.
2020 Options- Ryan Fitzpatrick (re-sign), 5th Overall Pick (Miami fans have been calling 'Tank for Tua' for years now... Tagovailoa still makes sense after the injury, he could heal his body by red-shirting his rookie season as the roster overhaul continues for the Dolphins).
My Pick to Start- Ryan Fitzpatrick, Tua Tagovailoa on roster as injury redshirt.
LIKELY
1. Las Vegas Raiders; the Jon Gruden-Derek Carr arranged marriage has seemed strained since Gruden's return to the NFL. Despite never publicly stating Carr is NOT his guy, Gruden has made runs at Kyler Murray and Tom Brady, among other rumors, which is never a great vote of confidence for your starting quarterback. Especially a QB that had the Raiders poised to make a Titans type wildcard run with a relatively easy schedule remaining in 2019, only to lose five out of their last six to the Jets, Chiefs, Titans, Jaguars, and Broncos (missing the playoffs in a choking fashion). Now headed to Las Vegas for the first year of their new brand, owner Mark Davis (along with Gruden and GM Mike Mayock) may want to bring in a new face to excite his new city.
2020 Options- If it's not Carr, it could be a veteran like Tom Brady, Cam Newton, or even...
My Pick to Start- Jameis Winston, I've heard this rumor and I actually agree with it. Gruden is an offensive mind that sees his current QB as a safe option that lacks upside ability, while Winston has tremendous potential but has lacked discipline. I don't know if it will work, but I do think Gruden believes he can unlock a player like Jameis.
2. Tampa Bay Bucs; the most accurate way I have heard Jameis Winston described is that he is the greatest quarterback ever at keeping BOTH teams in the game simultaneously. This year he was no less of an enigma than usual (more actually), surpassing 5,000 yards for the season with 33 touchdowns and 30 interceptions in Bruce Arians' explosive system. Winston's season was actually so bizarre, he created a league of his own, becoming the first NFL QB in history to join the 30/30 club for a single season. George Blanda (1962, 27/42) and John Hadl (1968, 27/32) were the closest before him, each coming up three short on the TD side. Arians was hesitant about Winston from the moment he was hired, but he has stood by the former first rounder for the most part, despite being bluntly insulting at times when talking to the media. "There's so much good and so much outright terrible," Arians told reporters after the Bucs season ended on a Winston pick six. The original plan was to re-sign Jameis, but Rivers' interest to reside in Florida may have outdated that narrative.
2020 Options- Jameis Winston (re-sign), Philip Rivers (the veteran has moved his family to Florida to be closer to his hometown in Alabama, all signs indicate he would like to end his career for a franchise in this area), 14th Overall Pick (the Bucs need other things, like O-Line and secondary, but they could theoretically draft a QB like Jordan Love).
My Pick to Start- Philip Rivers, like Carson Palmer did with the same coach in Arizona, Rivers can rejuvenate himself under Arians and try for one final SB run with a rising defense and two beasts at wide receiver. Maybe they draft Love, Eason, or Fromm.
3. Indianapolis Colts; Andrew Luck's impromptu retirement (another stalwart from the previous era) couldn't have come at a worse time for Indy and general manager Chris Ballard, just weeks before the 2019 season. Right when he finally had the roster around Luck that could possibly win a Super Bowl, the superstar decided his long-term future after football was more valuable (and I say that with the upmost respect for Luck's decision, this franchise did not protect him early on in his career and they deserved the result they got). The shocking choice thrust Jacoby Brissett into the starting role (and provided him a raise from payroll). With one year left on the Jacoby extension, the Colts may end up sticking with the young QB after an average year. I believe they can be a playoff team with Brissett, but he needs a better defense and more weapons besides a powerful run game. I only really think they would make a change if the right veteran wanted to come in, but they could also draft their future quarterback and let him watch from the sidelines during his rookie season.
2020 Options- 13th Overall Pick (trade up for Herbert/Tua type or draft Jordan Love... start Brissett), I haven't heard much of a connection between Brady and Indy, but they could afford him. The more likely candidate could be Philip Rivers, who has been tied to the team by some reports.
My Pick to Start- Nick Foles or Andy Dalton, the Colts have a surplus of cap space to take on a veteran contract in a trade and they could use a more accurate/experienced arm behind that dominant offensive line. Brissett stays with the team, relegated back to second string.
FUTURE UNCERTAIN
1. New England Patriots; Tom Brady's arrogance knows no bounds. After finally failing to factor into a Super Bowl conversation for the first time in years, Brady then attempted to hijack the NFL news cycle the entire playoffs as he posted one nondescript social media pic after the next concerning his free agent status. The GOAT, as he is commonly referred to by Patriots fans, has made it clear that New England not only needs to ante up some money to re-sign him, but that they better give him more offensive weapons as well. I guess last season's group wasn't up to Brady's standards (some might argue he's had a spoiled NFL career with top-notch coaching, O-line, and superstar targets throughout like Gronk, Moss, Edelman, or countless others). There's no question owner Robert Kraft wants Brady to retire a Patriot, and he has made it clear he is willing to pay the legendary QB over 30 million per year for the first time in his career, but with just over 45 million in cap space, how can the Pats bring back Brady and properly surround the 42 year old quarterback with talent? Something doesn't add up here. For this to all work out for New Englanders in 2020, Belichick may have to get creative, and I'm not even sure he wants to (remember Coach Bill wanted to keep Jimmy G before Kraft forced the SF trade). One thing's for sure, Brady is the ultimate QB domino this off-season, once he chooses every other move will fall in turn.
2020 Options- Tom Brady (re-sign), Jarrett Stidham (the backup with one career pick six under his belt in one drive of action), 23rd Overall Pick (so trade up or take a chance on a guy like Eason or Fromm), Trade for or Sign a Vet (most likely option if Brady departs, I've heard names like Cam Newton, Andy Dalton, Ryan Tannehill, Teddy Bridgewater, Derek Carr, Nick Foles, Case Keenum, Joe Flacco, and even Marcus Mariota-- WOOF!).
My Pick to Start- Tom Brady (as a Jets fan I'm pessimistic)... if he did leave, I'd bet they get Dalton.
2. New Orleans Saints; Sean Payton and Saints' ownership are in a tough spot too. Like the Patriots, they will wait on their legendary franchise quarterback to make a decision. Brees' choice is a simpler one however, re-sign in NOLA, or retire. The only problem for New Orleans is that capable backup, Teddy Bridgewater, is an unrestricted free agent as well, and Swiss army knife third stringer, Taysom Hill, is even up for a new deal (restricted free agent). All they will ask for from Brees is a timely decision, with the Bridgewater-Hill tandem the likely combo to replace him.
2020 Options- I don't think this one is anything out of the ordinary, it will be Drew Brees or Teddy Bridgewater starting for NOLA in 2020. Only uncertainty, if Brees returns, does Teddy?
My Pick to Start- Drew Brees, final season... for real this time.
3. Jacksonville Jaguars; four years, 88 million to Nick Foles, another nightmare so far for Jacksonville. Not only did Foles miss most of 2019 with injury, he was benched after his return, in favor of the invigorating play of sixth round draft pick, Gardner Minshew. Fans quickly fell in love with Gardner, with a mustachioed look that completed a phenomenal aura. It wasn't just Minshew's personality though, it was his ability. The Jags were competitive with the young gunslinger, despite many other issues this season, his determination and gambler mentality (plus more athleticism and speed) seemed to fit this scrappy unit better than whatever Foles mustered up. So the obvious question now arises, with Foles due a lot of money over the next three years and Minshew dirt cheap (with possibly more long-term upside in his game), what should the Jags do now?
2020 Options- with a new President of Football Operations coming in, this will be tricky to predict. There's no reason they cannot move forward with both QB's, but with other needs throughout the roster Foles' cap space could prove useful. Perhaps a trading partner will emerge.
My Pick to Start- Gardner Minshew (Foles traded), Case Keenum signed as cheaper backup to mentor (similar style QB as Minshew with experience).
4. Tennessee Titans; Mariota didn't last as a franchise quarterback (I was calling that for years by the way), but Ryan Tannehill stepped in a proved a change of scenery was just what he needed after failing in Miami. Both are now free agents heading into 2020, and with all the open jobs I'm fairly confident Mariota will try and latch on elsewhere with a clean slate and an opportunity to compete. The Titans and head coach Mike Vrabel gave Tannehill a chance, something he desperately needed to revive his career, and they were on the doorstep of a Nashville Super Bowl party. I would be stunned if Tannehill did not re-sign with Tennessee (theoretically they could even franchise him if they re-sign Henry), but the star running back will be their first priority.
2020 Options- Ryan Tannehill should be the QB in 2020, unless the Brady rumors are true.
My Pick to Start- Ryan Tannehill
UNLIKELY to CHANGE, but NOT IMPOSSIBLE
1. Dallas Cowboys; Dak Prescott had his career best statistical season in 2019 (his contract year, go figure), throwing for 4,902 yards and 30 TD's. Now Dak wants to get PAID. If Jerry Jones had known Prescott was going to up his asking price with his play last season, he would of at least hoped to make the playoffs. The disastrous season for the Cowboys was the absolute worst case scenario for Jerry. He will have to pay up, or franchise tag and risk another holdout (remember Elliott threatened the same last Fall). The real kicker, even at his best Dak couldn't lead a talented roster to a Super Bowl, hell he didn't even make the playoffs! With cap hits increasing and their window decreasing, it may be time to panic in Dallas.
My Pick to Start- Dak Prescott
2. Chicago Bears; another modern age QB like Prescott, Mitch Trubisky, will take a break from the heated car seats in Chicago this Winter after feeling the fire from fans all season long. Even so, barring something unforeseen like Tom Brady in Chicago 2020, it looks like Mitch will get one last chance to prove this is his team moving forward. Whether it's head coach Matt Nagy, Trubisky himself, or both, someone will likely get the ax if the offense doesn't improve next campaign. Athleticism and mobility are the former top pick's strength, yet Nagy designed fewer rushes than a frat house on probation. Who's to blame? Bears need answers and soon.
My Pick to Start- Mitch Trubisky, but I could see Chicago bringing in Bridgewater or Mariota to compete for the job.
3. Atlanta Falcons; after the late season run that saved Dan Quinn's job, a move to trade Matt Ryan and rebuild now seems extremely unlikely. Quinn cannot afford a rebuild, he would never survive it. Who knows what GM Thomas Dimitroff thinks about the matter, but I feel like Falcons' owner Arthur Blank isn't prepared to tear it all down after getting a taste of a championship only to have Belichick and Brady complete a soul-crushing comeback. Blank's opinion trumps the others, so I do not think Ryan will be traded, but if the Falcons were smart they would shop him. 2020 is the former MVP's age 35 season and they are only in year two of an idiotic five year (150 million) extension in 2018. Ryan is a pocket passer who has become terribly slow with age, this offensive line was tied for fifth most sacks allowed in 2019, Atlanta has the fourth least cap space available to remedy the problem... this will get worse before it gets better and I thought Quinn's firing would have been a perfect time to start fresh (except he never got fired). The only place this aging roster is headed is towards the nursing home, but they'll be together at least!
My Pick to Start- Matt Ryan
4. Pittsburgh Steelers; franchise Steelers QB and Super Bowl champion Ben Roethlisberger will be back at the wheel in 2019, and already I'm hearing talks of a Pittsburgh title run behind a scary defense and a healthy offense. I'm not buying it. I agree that Mason Rudolph and Devlin Hodges were for the most part atrocious in his place (neither are starting NFL caliber), but I'm not convinced Big Ben is very good anymore either, especially after a throwing arm injury that you would more commonly see in a baseball pitcher. Roethlisberger turns 38 in March, maybe he does have one more run left in him, or maybe 2020 will be the swan song of a future HOF'er.
My Pick to Start- Ben Roethlisberger (barring re-injury), perhaps they sign a Jeff Driskel or Blake Bortles type as a backup with more talent than Rudolph/Duck.
TRANSITIONING
(quarterback change already began last season)
1. New York Giants; as beloved as Eli Manning was in NYC throughout his career, Giants fans were ready to move on a few years ago. Then Daniel Jones came along and blew the lid off that discussion after a promising rookie campaign, even Eli himself realized it was time to walk off into the sunset when he saw that.
My Pick to Start- Daniel Jones, sign veteran backup like Chase Daniels.
2. Denver Broncos; Drew Lock's play was encouraging for Broncos fans down the stretch. He will now get a full season to prove he is the future in Denver, as Joe Flacco's NFL career (another QB from the previous guard) is nearing its conclusion.
My Pick to Start- Drew Lock, and they cut loose the injured Flacco who retires.
3. Washington Redskins; the Washington situation is a bit trickier than the other two with veteran Ron Rivera coming in to coach. Although he stated that he likes what Dwayne Haskins can do, Rivera also mentioned Alex Smith's hard work in his recovery and stated that if Smith can get healthy, the two would compete. Still, it's got to be Haskins' job to lose considering his draft status and the severity of Smith's injury (which may end up forcing his retirement).
My Pick to Start- Dwayne Haskins, but I would love to see Alex Smith play again before he retires.
With quite possibly more off-season QB shuffling than we have ever seen before (I have seven organizations, possibly even eight or nine, with a new franchise signal caller this year), 2020 will become the ultimate quarterback roulette. Time to let it ride.
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