NFL Offseason Grades: NFC North... Old Gods & New
- iAmMizz!
- Jun 12, 2019
- 14 min read
Updated: Dec 14, 2019
It has been some time since there was a King in the North, the NFC North being the real Northernmost division in the NFL. The last Superbowl winner to come out of this old and storied group was the Green Bay Packers in 2010. The Chicago Bears also lost the 2006 Superbowl to the Colts, but the division has been otherwise unsuccessful in the 21st century. For the Packers and Bears, this is uncommon. The modern teams are the descendants of greatness, coaches and players deemed as sports-Gods to some fans and patrons (Lombardi, Halas, Lambeau, Ditka, Payton, Starr, Butkus, Favre, and many more). Even Detroit had Barry Sanders, the NFL's most legendary running back, who played his entire career with the Lions. For Minnesota, the story has been different. The Vikings have yet to claim the ultimate crown, despite having 20 division championships and 29 total playoff berths since their inaugural season in 1961. They actually lead the division in these two categories since the restructure of 1966 (NFC Central), but championships have been nonexistent, and the famous viking Skol clap has yet to awaken the Nordic Gods. The most recent opportunity was in 2017, when the team went 13-3 behind a punishing defense and a journeyman quarterback, Case Keenum, but they fell short again. Last season, with expectations high in Minnesota and Green Bay, it was Chicago that emerged after four straight last place finishes, Khalil Mack heading the charge. In 2019, I see the North as the second-most balanced division in the NFL behind the AFC South, but are any of the four Northern champions talented enough to be crowned king?
The Bears roared and flexed on everyone else in the North in 2018. GM Ryan Pace made a deal for Khalil Mack before the season began, and the impact and influence he had on the defense was immeasurable. Meanwhile, first year head coach Matt Nagy led a bright young offense captained by former first round pick Mitchell Trubisky, an athletic quarterback who many feel still has untapped potential (while others doubt he will ever be a top QB). The Monsters of the Midway were back, their intimidation factor reminiscent of the top Bears eras (Butkus, Urlacher) where defense won championships... but is this still the case in 2019? I like to believe it can be. Prolific offenses dominate the regular seasons, but when the cold wind blows in January and February, defense and old-style play is still king most seasons (just look at last year's big game). Da Bears hope to build off 2018 and put together a real title run this season behind strong defense and steady run-game. They did lose respected D-coordinator Vic Fangio (head coach of the Broncos) due to their success, but replaced him with Chuck Pagano, another veteran mind with plenty of class and intelligence. Another year of Nagy and Trubisky together should be vital as well. Recent history is not on their side however, a team hasn't won the NFC North in back to back seasons since the Packers did it in 2013 and '14.
With eight NFL League Titles and one Superbowl before 1986, the Bears have been in a championship hibernation of sorts. This year they have a chance at a legitimate run, but what have they done to supplement the team that shocked the league last season? It seems as though the main shift this offseason involved getting younger (a lot of North teams shared this sentiment). The biggest move so far was shipping out Jordan Howard to Philadelphia. The workhorse RB has been replaced by draft pick David Montgomery (who many view as the favorite on early downs), and free agent signing Mike Davis (off a good year in Seattle). Don't forget Tarik Cohen, the human joystick out of the backfield who specializes in third down situations and special teams highlight reels. Benny Cunningham also left the backfield, as well as fullback Mike Burton. Burton might be the loss that is less-easily replaced, but it seems Nagy would prefer a two-back system that ditches the extra blocker. The other major change was in the kicking department. The Bears lost a few games last season (the main one being the wildcard playoff game versus Philly) because of Cody Parkey, below average place kicker for Chicago. His game-winner clanged off the uprights to end the 2018 campaign, a sound that became all too familiar for Bears fans. Parkey was cut shortly after, deservedly so, but the void was left open for most of the offseason. Finally, Pace made another trade for former highly scouted draft pick in 2018, Eddy Pineiro, who missed his rookie season due to injuries. Aside from that, the transactions were relatively straightforward. Eric Kush and Bryan Witzmann left on the O-line, but Ted Larsen and TJ Clemmings took their place (all depth players). Kevin White and Josh Bellamy were finally given up on, with Cordarrelle Patterson brought in as a big body WR/RB instead. Riley Ridley (brother of Calvin Ridley) was also taken at WR late in the draft. Safety thumper Ha Ha Clinton-Dix signed as a direct fix for the ultra-similar Adrian Amos' departure. The key loss will definitely be nickelback, Bryce Callahan, who priced himself out of Chicago with his stellar play... Sherrick McManis and rookie Duke Shelley are next in line.
Offseason Grade: C+... after spending big money on Mack, Allen Robinson, and others in 2018, the Bears made a conscious effort to cut cap space and substitute veteran players with cheaper youth. It may certainly work at RB, and possibly even kicker, but Callahan is a hit to the secondary. Either way, there is nothing impressive about this offseason... at best, it has been clever at times. The switch from Fangio to Pagano may upset the equilibrium on the defense. Might be a let down season in Chi-Town.
In my lifetime, I always saw the Packers as the dominant team in the NFC North. Even when they didn't win, they were often predicted to, moving from Brett Favre to Aaron Rodgers at QB... from old Gods to new in Lambeau. The truth is, they have less division titles than Minnesota since '66 (15 compared to 20), and less than Chicago all time (18 compared to 21). When they have gotten to the playoffs though, they've been very successful, more so than any other franchise in this group. In 31 playoff appearances all-time, the Pack has won 11 NFL Titles (two not counted towards championships) and four Superbowls. Even at 13 rather than 15, Green Bay has won 41.9% of the time they have been involved in postseason play. In present-day GB, Rodgers has been almost unanimously proclaimed #1 QB in the world not named Tom Brady. They are a Superbowl contender to begin every season, no matter the alterations. So why have they only made the playoffs once in the last three seasons? Why was long-tenured head coach Mike McCarthy canned in '18, and not hired by anyone else in '19? Where are all the recent rings? And what is wrong with the Green Bay Packers?
General Manager Brian Gutekunst took over in 2018, despite being part of the organization before that. It had been clear the McCarthy era ended for some time now, but Gutekunst was the man to finally make the change, bringing in the much younger Titans O-coordinator, Matt LaFleur, to be his guy. I was in agreement on McCarthy needing to go, but I wasn't thrilled with the hire. LaFleur ran a boring offense in Tennessee, but for whatever reason the Packers liked him. Who's really in charge though, Matty-boy or A-God? This may have finally become Rodgers offense in a way Brady and Manning have run their teams of the past. Besides the coaching decision, the offense will pick up where it left off. Randall Cobb will finally leave the Pack (past his prime for awhile now), which leaves a very hungry core of receivers after Davante Adams. Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Geronimo Allison, Equanimeous St. Brown, J'Mon Moore, Trevor Davis, and more line up to claim the spotlight. The O-line adds guard Billy Turner, and remains sturdy otherwise. Elgton Jenkins was even drafted to become the center of the future, learning for now. When healthy, they still remain a formidable front protecting Rodgers. Speaking of health, the quarterback's has been an issue these last few seasons. It is paramount that he stays on the field in 2019. The transition on defense was much larger, the Packers got younger, fast. This D is already being talked about as an up-and-comer in 2019. In '17 and '18, Green Bay drafted corners Kevin King, Jaire Alexander, and Joshua Jackson. In '19, they added two more, as well as safety first-round pick, Darnell Savage, from Maryland. He'll compete with '17 draft pick Josh Jones to start alongside free agent acquisition Adrian Amos from Chicago. Aging veterans like Bashaud Breeland, Davon House, and Kentrell Brice are all out. The new look secondary is complemented by new look edge rushers. Za'Darius Smith (Ravens) and Preston Smith (Redskins) were signed to bookend the 3-4 like brothers-in-arms. Two more Packers from the older generation, Clay Matthews and Nick Perry, were sent packing. Jake Ryan and Antonio Morrison also walked from the middle linebacker position, leaving just Blake Martinez. This is where the Pack might be weakest, as recent picks Oren Burks and Ty Summers are the best options behind the injury-prone middle linebacker. The final changing off the guards... highly anticipated first round pick, Rashan Gary will take on the role of Mo-Wilk on the D-line. Wilkerson was cut, saving a lot more space, and all of a sudden the Packers are rebuilt.
Offseason Grade: A-... out with the old and in with the new. The Bears had the right idea, Green Bay just did it better. Sure this has been a process that began in 2017, but it finally seems to be coming to fruition in 2019. They didn't go crazy spending money either, the adds were surgical and specific to what the Pack needed (O-line depth, fresh motivated edge rushers, safety help). All the while they cut a ton of bad cap... 2020 could be the Packers next major hype season, but look for them to start back on the winning trail as soon as NOW.
The Lions have never been a team known for their championships. They've never even been known as the team to beat in the "black-and-blue division" that is the North. Their four NFL Titles were in the days before the Superbowl, and their four division trophies were sporadic at best, never yielding anything memorable. There were no dynasties or teams of legend (aside from the aforementioned Sanders). GM Bob Quinn (former Patriots scout and front office exec) would like to change that. Clearly, he and recent head coaching hire, Matt Patricia (former Pats D-coordinator and Belichick disciple), are attempting to recreate what New England has done in Detroit. Take a failing franchise, blow up everything, re-sculpt the culture, and become a team of consistency that wins for a very long time. The huge question on everyone's mind is, can they do it? We have already seen this before, Belichick coaching disciples have had countless opportunities and pretty much all of them have failed. The Titans have even tried a little Patriots 2.0 already in Nashville with Vrabel bringing in a bunch of ex-Pats, that hasn't really worked either. So what makes me believe Patricia and Quinn will be the guys to do it? Nothing really, I think Patricia is a hack, but have seen solid drafting from Quinn so far. Either way, the mold is there for the taking and this duo is doing their best to form solid clay out of jello mix. The opening year of Patricia's reign ended 6-10, with a few players feeling alienated by his harsh coaching style (can't act like Belichick without the respect of Bad Bill). It was a failure, but Rome wasn't built in one day, and neither are football empires.
Year two has begun already, continuing the massive overhaul of the franchise with many more offseason modifications. The core seems locked in... Matt Stafford, Kerryon Johnson (a nice '18 draft pick by Quinn), Taylor Decker, Kenny Golladay, Darius Slay, and new addition Trey Flowers (poached from New England). Decker and Golladay were also drafted in the Quinn era, this guy can scout. Graham Glasgow and Frank Ragnow are also former Quinn selections that should start on the O-line this year. Oday Aboushi was the only add on the line through free agency, most likely just a depth move. Ziggy Ansah was let go in a corresponding transaction with the splash signing of Flowers (Kerry Hyder and Eli Harold also left). Flowers has to live up to his contract in Detroit (should fit in a similar system), pass rush has been a non-factor for the Lions in recent seasons and they remain slim at the position behind him. Darius Kilgo joins Snacks Harrison and A'Shawn Robinson as the big boys on the line. Those two should stuff the run and allow for Flowers and blitzers to get penetration on opposing passers. Rookie Jahlani Tavai could overtake one of the three linebacker spots if he has a solid camp... former first round pick Jarrad Davis will captain the crew, but Devon Kennard and Christian Jones still have to prove they're consistent starters. I really thought the secondary was a need position for Detroit as well. They attempted to address it, grabbing multiple fliers in Rashaan Melvin and Justin Coleman (corners with inconsistent careers). Nevin Lawson will be elsewhere in 2019 and Andrew Adams was brought in as safety depth. On offense, Patricia seems to like having a heavy backer around to pound D-lines when Johnson needs a break. LeGarrette Blount seemed old last year, and was replaced with CJ Anderson who did well in LA. This should be a nice upgrade. The Lions went with the quantity approach at wide receiver too, like cornerback. With Golladay and Marvin Jones left as the only options for Stafford (Bruce Ellington went to NE), Quinn signs Danny Amendola, Jermaine Kearse, and Tommy-Lee Lewis to compete for the slot. The colossal Patriot move this offseason came at tight end. After Luke Willson moved on, Jesse James was brought in, and it appeared the former Steeler might finally get a chance to start. That didn't last long as the Lions spent their first round pick on highly-touted beast TE, TJ Hockenson, a Gronk-like force at the University of Iowa.
Offseason Grade: B... I really liked the moves on offense, Quinn provided a lot of help for Stafford with both experience and talent via youth. If this unit stays healthy it could become a legitimate powerhouse in 2019 (Golladay, Jones, Hockenson, James, Amendola/Kearse... with Kerryon as a dynamic back and Anderson spelling him). On defense I was less impressed, Flowers I like, but because of the massive contract he now has to play like he did in New England every year (never saw him as a generational talent). The pass rush is still thin after that, and many questions still loom in the secondary and linebacker positions. The Pats always had more of a system defense though, different cogs falling in and out of Belichick's scheme, so maybe it's all part of the plan?
The Vikings have actually had the most success in the last four seasons, winning the North twice and just narrowly missing the playoffs as a wildcard in 2018. For a franchise that has had plenty of regular season victories, but zero championships in a long history spanning back to 1961, this won't quite cut it. Minnesota fans are thinking Superbowl or bust right now. They want the ring, nothing else will satisfy. That's why GM Rick Spielman signed Kirk Cousins last year, hoping the stat-first (win-second) QB would be the missing piece that pushed them into playoff glory. The thing is, to write your name in the postseason history books, you usually have to make the postseason first! They really went for it last year and came up way way short... like massively short. Now their money is sunk into a plan that failed, and this season all that's left to do is try again, but hope things click this time. That plan doesn't really inspire much confidence in me (if I was a Vikes fan). In fact, I feel the holes that kept them from making the playoffs in '18 are even larger in '19. Let's get to it, shall we?
The big issue for this offense was the blocking. You can blame Cousins as well, he didn't play up to his contract, but considering what he had to work with I personally cannot fault him completely. First off, he's a pocket passer, and he's on a team that has the pocket collapse on itself most plays within seconds of the snap. Keenum was a scrambler by nature, so you didn't notice this as much in 2017 when they won the division. Cousins didn't fit this team, but now he has to. The good news is the Vikings have realized this, at least to some extent. They draft center Garrett Bradbury with their first round pick... from what I've heard this dude is the real deal, and should diffuse at least one out of five lineman bombs for the foreseeable future. Riley Reiff is also a decent LT, if he has the right help around him. They part ways with Nick Easton, Mike Remmers, and Tom Compton, players that were mostly poor last year, but still I would of kept as much depth as I could with not much to choose from in front of Cousins. In their place will be Josh Kline (cast-off from the Titans) and Dakota Dozier (depth from the Jets). Options for the two starting guard positions include those two, Pat Elflein, Danny Isidora, Aviante Collins, Brett Jones, and more scrubs like that... basically, the Vikings went with the Duane Reade band-aid approach at guard. At right tackle will be second-year player Brian O'Neill. He did not look ready last season, and might be more trouble for Kirk. I'm thinking Dalvin Cook will get the ball, like a lot, but if he goes down again they lost Latavius Murray (Saints) behind him. Rookie Alexander Mattison and Michael Boone will back up Cook. The only addition behind Thielen and Diggs at WR was Jordan Taylor (unimpressive slot man last seen on Denver), who may take on Aldrick Robinson's role. They managed to extend Rudolph (despite drafting his eventual replacement in Irv Smith) and Anthony Barr who almost went to the Jets, but do you consider those wins? Resigning guys that have been here forever. The team-stigma that is Sheldon Richardson will no longer be in purple (which actually might be a plus), but they only replace him with Shamar Stephen. Andrew Sendejo and George Iloka will also depart, otherwise the defense remains largely unchanged. Players like Everson Griffen, Xavier Rhodes, Barr, Harrison Smith, Danielle Hunter, Linval Joseph, Trae Waynes, and their backups will HAVE TO step up this season. This team wins based on D, not offense. A lot of those stars had lackluster seasons in 2018, and Coach Zimmer struggled to find the magic because the backbone disappeared. That 2017 defense MUST reemerge. PS... a defensive team should never have a dome stadium, especially when they play in a cold weather place (look at how the Seahawks use Seattle, or the Pats in New England). Owner Zygi Wilf should cut his losses on that decision and knock that roof down ASAP!
Offseason Grade: D... besides drafting Bradbury and managing to resign a couple of players that almost walked, this has been another disaster offseason. Considering Spielman is following up his Cousins nightmare signing in '18 with this poor showing now tells you how bankrupt they really are after the quarterback deal. Spielman will pray things improve, he might even use Zimmer as a scapegoat if it comes to that, but in the end I think the Vikings may have missed their window. When the ship begins to sink, what do you do?
I'm not sure how the predictions have been going for this division among analysts, but from what I have heard so far (which has been slight if anything at all), my picks may be a little off the beaten path here. I've heard people say they like Minnesota's chances to take back the North for example... I don't, which was probably obvious after my grades. I think the Vikings fall all the way into last place in 2019 because of an unimproved O-line, a turnover-happy QB with no clutch bone in his body, a defense that is getting older by the day, and no money to relieve any of their stressors. From there things get tougher. We'll assume all four quarterbacks keep themselves off the IR in these predictions, but I'll take the Packers to win the division for the first time since 2016. The Bears should still be good, but with a tougher strength of schedule and higher expectations, this is a classic let down waiting to happen. Detroit will battle with Chicago for second place, but only one will have a chance at a wildcard. The NFC is too balanced to have two wildcards from any division, but I also wouldn't say the North is the favorite for either spot... So, will there be a KING IN THE NORTH in 2019? I'll have to say no. Green Bay has the best shot at the Superbowl and they still look like a team that is one year away to me, maybe 2020.
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