NFL NFC through 10 (+Playoff Preview)

MVP front-runner Russell Wilson (Seahawks) helped knock off the undefeated San Francisco 49ers... but the Saints beat Seattle, so who's the real #1 in the NFC? Image Credit: 710 ESPN Seattle- MyNorthwest.com

The NFC has had one of its most competitive seasons in recent football history. Aside from two or three teams, everyone not only has a shot at the playoffs, the bases still believe they can make it. Only six out of sixteen advance in the NFL though, that's 37.5% of each conference, the rest have a long Winter filled with 'what ifs' and second guessing.

NFC East:

My Early Summer Predictions- 1. Eagles 2. Cowboys 3. Giants 4. Redskins

My Week 1 Predictions- 1.Eagles (13-3) 2.Cowboys (10-6) (WC) 3.Giants (5-11) 4.Skins (3-13)

Week 11 Reality- 1. Cowboys (5-4) 2. Eagles (5-4) 3. Giants (2-8) 4. Redskins (1-8)

The NFC East was probably my most accurately predicted division this Summer. I had the Redskins as a dumpster fire that transitions over to Dwayne Haskins at quarterback, that's pretty much been the story so far. I also didn't think Haskins would be successful out of the gates, and he hasn't been. I thought the Giants would be slightly better than they've played. If the Bucs kicker doesn't shank a short field goal this team is 1-9 right now, and that's hard to believe with some of the talent they have on offense. I'm aware of the deficiencies for the G-Men; a pathetic secondary, no pass rush, a below average offensive line, a rookie QB and the growing pains that comes with, but this team is better than one or two wins. If they don't improve soon, Giants fans should be furious if inept head coach Pat Shurmur returns in 2020. In my original off-season write up, I predicted the Eagles would edge the Cowboys in a narrow divisional race, but I must have loved the Eagles schedule when I did my week 1 records if I ranked them 13-3. They have suffered a decent amount of injuries throughout, but that was still a little much. My initial prognosis was on the money. This is a two horse race, and it will likely come down to either one game or a tiebreaker at nine or ten wins.

DAL remaining schedule- @Lions, @Pats, vsBills, @Bears, vsRams, @Eagles, vsRedskins

PHI remaining schedule- vsPats, vsSeahawks, @Dolphins, vsGiants, @Skins, vsCowboys, @Giants

Adjusted Playoff Prediction- Eagles (10-6), Cowboys (9-7)

I have the Eagles losing the next two at home, and still winning the division after finishing the season on a five game win streak. It could honestly go down like that with very little competition after week 12. Giants twice, Dolphins, Redskins. Home or away, rivalry or not, the Eagles have to win those games if they want to make the playoffs. The Cowboys have it a little tougher. They should win this week being that the Lions are without Stafford, but a win in New England probably won't happen and although I think they'll win two out of the three against the Bills and Rams at home and Bears on the road, I can't see them sweeping that group. That @Chicago matchup scares me the most as a Boys spoiler. If it shakes out like this, the head to head in Philly week 16 will likely be FOR the division, and I'll take the home birds.

NFC North:

My Early Summer Predictions- 1. Packers 2. Bears 3. Lions 4. Vikings

My Week 1 Predictions- 1. Packers (11-5) 2. Bears (10-6) (WC) 3. Lions (8-8) 4. Vikings (6-10)

Week 11 Reality- 1. Packers (8-2) 2. Vikings (7-3) 3. Bears (4-5) 4. Lions (3-5-1)

Man! The cheeseheads have really had my back this season. I kind of went out on a limb when I picked them to take the North back behind Aaron Rodgers and a promising defense that I felt was up-and-coming. The D has been much improved (shout out to Jaire Alexander who looks like a future top corner in this league), but Rodgers is the driving force behind this team. He's done a lot with a little this season, especially since Davante Adams has missed a bunch of games. Where I fouled up was with the Vikes. I was convinced their below average O-line would kill their offense again, but what I didn't account for was the ascension of Dalvin Cook. Who knew that when healthy, Cook would be up there with names like Elliott, Barkley, McCaffrey, and Kamara? Not me! The rushing attack has been so dominant that Cousins has been able to utilize the play action more often than not. A run game like this takes away the blitz, and gives relief to the defense (another solid year for Vikes D), which were some of the major issues plaguing the Vikings last season. Minnesota still has to finish strong if they want to return to the playoffs, but right now they're set up in a nice spot. I actually called a Bears regression. I didn't think their defense could repeat their historic year and I knew the Bears were up against a first place schedule. The NFL has a way of evening out when a team over-performs from one season to the next. So was I out there calling for a Bears Super Bowl like some analysts were keen on doing this Summer (heard a few Trubisky MVP picks too)? No, absolutely not, but I did think they would be in the wildcard conversation so I was wrong about how far they would plummet. I ended up giving them the tiebreak over the Panthers for the final wildcard. At 4-5, time is running out, but hope is not lost. I will say, I have been very unimpressed with the coaching ability and play-calling of Matt Nagy this season. The Lions are in the gutter where many thought they would be, but it's been a season of missed opportunities (and a few horrible calls by referees). I had them as a surprise 8-8, and up until recently that still seemed attainable. Before his recent injury, Stafford was playing some of his best football, the defense hasn't been great but it did force a lot of turnovers in the first half, and Golladay has developed into a top flight #1 receiver. Now Stafford is out, Kerryon Johnson might be done for the year, the line is banged up, and the defense has fallen back down to Earth. After another disappointing season, one would have to wonder if Matt Patricia's job may be in jeopardy.

GB remaining schedule- BYE, @49ers, @Giants, vsRedskins, vsBears, @Vikings, @Lions

MIN remaining schedule- vsBroncos, BYE, @Seahawks, vsLions, @Chargers, vsPackers, vsBears

CHI remaining schedule- @Rams, vsGiants, @Lions, vsCowboys, @Packers, vsChiefs, @Vikings

DET remaining schedule- vsCowboys, @Redskins, vsBears, @Vikings, vsBucs, @Broncos, vsPackers

Adjusted Playoff Prediction- Packers (12-4), Vikings (10-6), Bears (8-8), Lions (6-9-1)

It's kind of tricky to figure how the Lions will finish with Stafford's condition totally up in the air. A back injury like that could extend longer than his diagnosis, and even if he returns it may affect his form. Six wins seemed safe, but I could see them winning anywhere from five to seven... which won't get them to the playoffs. I think Chicago dug themselves too deep a hole as well, with a schedule that has games against the Cowboys, Packers, Chiefs, and Vikings the final four weeks. Green Bay should lock this thing up, but will the Vikes lock down the second wildcard?

NFC South:

My Early Summer Predictions- 1. Saints 2. Panthers 3. Falcons 4. Buccaneers

My Week 1 Predictions- 1. Saints (12-4) 2. Panthers (10-6) 3. Falcons (8-8) 4. Buccaneers (5-11)

Week 11 Reality- 1. Saints (7-2) 2. Panthers (5-4) 3. Buccaneers (3-6) 4. Falcons (2-7)

The division I deemed unpredictable most years back in the Summer was actually pretty straightforward this year. Did I have the Falcons struggling to reach five wins? No... but I did state in my initial NFC South article that this would be a rough year for the Dirty Birds and that they would not be a serious playoff contender. I thought they would claw their way to seven or eight wins at the end of the season, and maybe they still can, but their problems outweighed their strengths. Those problems I laid out were defensive depth behind their two or three playmakers (Deion Jones, Trufant, Keanu Neal, maybe Tak McKinley), an issue I highlighted correctly being that this team has been killed by key injuries on D (especially in the secondary)... and rookies playing key roles on the O-line. Besides center Alex Mack and LT Jake Mathews, this line was a shell of the SB contender line three years ago. Matt Ryan is a smart, talented QB, but he's also a pocket passer. He NEEDS an O-line more than most. So am I surprised they're 2-7? Not at all, if anything my 8-8 prediction was based on if EVERYTHING went RIGHT, and it didn't. The Bucs are right on track with my prediction. Really they should have four or five wins already, but they can't get out of their own way. The Panthers will mostly like finish worse than ten wins and short of the playoffs, but considering Cam Newton missed basically the entire season and Kyle Allen has come out of nowhere to keep this team competitive, I'd chalk it up as a favorable result. McCaffrey has also had an insane year and deserves MVP consideration. Finally, the Saints have marched on, as expected... even with Drew Brees out, even with a rookie center, even with no WR depth behind Michael Thomas... Sean Payton has made it look easy.

NO remaining schedule- @Bucs, vsPanthers, @Falcons, vs49ers, vsColts, @Titans, @Panthers

CAR remaining schedule- vsFalcons, @Saints, vsRedskins, @Falcons, vsSeahawks, @Colts, vsSaints

TB remaining schedule- vsSaints, @Falcons, @Jaguars, vsColts, @Lions, vsTexans, vsFalcons

Adjusted Playoff Prediction- Saints (13-3), Panthers (8-8), Buccaneers (7-9)

For some reason I just feel the Panthers are going to hit a wall in the final month or so. I had them finishing at 7-9, but decided to give them the extra win. To me, they have kind of been over-performing, and although Kyle Allen has done all you can ask, he's still going to have his ups and downs in the final seven games. Unless CMC continues to carry the team, I think they'll slowly sink out of the wildcard race. The Bucs on the other hand might rise from the depths with at least five favorable games left on the schedule. It wouldn't be enough unless they win six out of seven minimum, but a strong finish could save Jameis Winston's job. Either way, the Saints run away with this thing. I could see them losing to the Bucs this week without Lattimore, and maybe once more in an upset, but I actually like them to beat the Niners head to head in NOLA, which would give them the home field tiebreak over Seattle and San Fran if they need it.

NFC West:

My Early Summer Predictions- 1. 49ers 2. Rams 3. Seahawks 4. Cardinals

My Week 1 Predictions- 1. Rams (10-6) 2. 49ers (8-8) 3. Seahawks (7-9) 4. Cardinals (3-13)

Week 11 Reality- 1. 49ers (8-1) 2. Seahawks (8-2) 3. Rams (5-4) 4. Cardinals (3-6-1)

The Seahawks season really has been astonishing. They only have two games decided by less than ten points, one win against Arizona and one loss against Baltimore. Five of those games were decided by less than five points. This actually explains a lot because I saw this roster as average going into week 1, and it honestly is. Three clutch competitors push this team over the top each weekend in the final moments (which is when most of their games are decided). Russell Wilson, possibly no QB is better in the final two minutes. Bobby Wagner, the most intelligent impact linebacker and defensive captain in the league. Pete Carroll, one of the most experienced coaching minds in football. I'm not saying Tyler Lockett and Chris Carson don't deserve credit, or any of the other key cogs in Seattle, but these three make this team special in each facet of the game. Now to the prediction that haunts me. After my NFC West off-season grades article, I was convinced this was San Francisco's year to take back the division IF they stayed healthy, so I picked the Niners as a surprise break out team and a division winner. After preseason, Jimmy G looked lost and it terrified me so much that I backtracked and dropped them down to 8-8. I'll admit, I was never high on the Seahawks this year and they proved me wrong, but I originally had the Rams as an eight or nine win team, and I'm upset with myself for flip-flopping on them and the Niners. The reason I was initially down on LA was their losses in the run game and pass protection. Top talent left guard Rodger Saffold signed with Tennessee, center John Sullivan retired, and Gurley's knee is gimpy. Goff is more of a game manager who excelled in McVay's system than a playmaker, and without the run (or protection), this team became troubling for me. Now their defense is anchored by two of the best in the game (Donald and Ramsey), but the supporting cast is less imposing. Finally, the Cardinals have been a pleasant surprise under the air raid offense, proving college coaches can possibly have success in the NFL.

SF remaining schedule- vsCards, vsPackers, @Ravens, @Saints, vsFalcons, vsRams, @Seahawks

SEA remaining schedule- BYE, @Eagles, vsVikings, @Rams, @Panthers, vsCards, vs49ers

LAR remaining schedule- vsBears, vsRavens, @Cards, vsSeahawks, @Cowboys, @49ers, vsCards

ARZ remaining schedule- @49ers, BYE, vsRams, vsSteelers, vsBrowns, @Seahawks, @Rams

Adjusted Playoff Prediction- Seahawks (13-3), 49ers (13-3), Rams (7-9), Cardinals (5-10-1)

Five wins with this roster would be a respectable rookie season for both Kyler Murray and his rookie head coach Kliff Kingsbury. More than I thought they would get. With the Rams injuries building and building on the offensive side of the ball, I just can't see this team winning too many more games against this brutal second half schedule. The O-line has massive problems, Cooks is out, Gurley is sixty percent at best, and Goff has proven that he cannot elevate a unit with issues. 8-8 is the best I can see this team doing, and I'm not even sure they'll get there. A disappointing finish for a team that was a few plays away from a Super Bowl last year (and one that traded their entire future for Jalen Ramsey). The San Fran-Seattle battle should be really exciting to watch, as incredible as their last game (we hope). With a home game in Seattle looming week 17 and Russell Wilson's MVP caliber play, I just have to give the Hawks the nod here. After eight undefeated weeks, a 13-3 wildcard would be an unfortunate end to the Niners regular season.

BRIEF NFC WILDCARD RECAP:

Current NFC Playoff Picture

1. 49ers (8-1) BYE 2. Packers (8-2) BYE 3. Saints (7-2) 4. Cowboys (5-4)

WC1- Seahawks (8-2) WC2- Vikings (7-3)

IN THE HUNT- Rams (5-4), Eagles (5-4), Panthers (5-4), Bears (4-5), Lions (3-5-1), Cards (3-6-1), Bucs (3-6), Falcons (2-7)

Original *Week 1* NFC Playoff Prediction

1. Eagles (13-3) BYE 2. Saints (12-4) BYE 3. Packers (11-5) 4. Rams (10-6)

WC1- Cowboys (10-6) WC2- Bears (10-6)

My NEW NFC Playoff Picture

1. Saints (13-3) BYE 2. Seahawks (13-3) BYE 3. Packers (12-4) 4. Eagles (10-6)

WC1- 49ers (13-3) WC2- Vikings (10-6)

MISS, ON THE BUBBLE- Cowboys (9-7), Panthers (8-8), Bears (8-8), Rams (7-9), Bucs (7-9)

So I did a bit better with the NFC. My two major errors were Seattle and Minnesota. I doubted both teams, and they have fought for recognition. If I stuck with my initial gut on the Rams and 49ers, as well as the Falcons, these picks would look even better... but what can you do! If the Eagles, Saints, and Packers take their divisions and the Cowboys or Bears somehow sneak into a wildcard (not expecting much with that), I'd be content on a solid year.

Being that the NFC is well-balanced while I feel the AFC was top heavy, the playoffs really could go any number of ways. Home field advantage will definitely end up being a major factor, and right now that advantage is San Francisco's to lose. The problem is, they have upcoming matchups with the Saints and Seahawks on the road. Assuming the Niners don't upset in NOLA or Seattle, Jimmy G and Kyle Shanahan may have to become road warriors in the new year. Even if teams find themselves on the road, this NFC playoff picture is STACKED with experience. The quarterbacks will likely be some combination of Drew Brees, Russell Wilson, Aaron Rodgers, Carson Wentz, Dak Prescott, Jimmy Garoppolo (the newcomer), and Kirk Cousins (the underdog). The head coaches will include names like Sean Payton, Doug Pederson, Mike Zimmer, Pete Carroll, and Kyle Shanahan. Superstar TD makers --like Michael Thomas, Ezekial Elliott, Dalvin Cook, Tyler Lockett, Emmanuel Sanders, Amari Cooper, Alvin Kamara, Adam Thielen & Stefon Diggs, Davante Adams, Alshon Jeffery, Chris Carson, Aaron Jones, and maybe even RUN CMC-- will demand the spotlight and the end zone. Defensive powerhouses --like Bobby Wagner, Richard Sherman, Marshon Lattimore, Nick Bosa, DeMarcus Lawrence, Everson Griffin, Jadeveon Clowney, DeForest Buckner, Jaire Alexander, Danielle Hunter, Fletcher Cox, Cameron Jordan and possibly Aaron Donald-- hunger at the chance to stop them. The lines are drawn, the fans have prayed, and the history books await... who's ready for some football?