NFL AFC through 10 (+Playoff Preview)

Lamar Jackson and the Raven just beat Tom Brady and the Patriots in Week 9, but are they the team to dethrone them? Image Credit: Courier-Journal

Just yesterday felt like week 1... expectations were high all around the league, injuries hadn't derailed any seasons yet, coach's heads weren't squirming under the ax, hope still existed. Time-warp forward to November 14th, which kicks off week 11 with a Steelers at Browns Thursday night game, and things have changed dramatically for many.

AFC EAST:

My Early Summer Predictions- 1. Patriots 2. Jets 3. Bills 4. Dolphins

My Week 1 Predictions- 1. Patriots (12-4) 2. Jets (10-6) 3. Bills (9-7) 4. Dolphins (1-15)

Week 11 Reality- 1. Patriots (8-1) 2. Bills (6-3) 3. Dolphins (2-7) 4. Jets (2-7)

Obviously the main misnomer for me (and most) in this division was the Jets. Don't even get me started, but from Sam Darnold's mono, to CJ Mosley and Avery Williamson combining for about one game of total game action this season, to the player suspensions (tight end Chris Herndon was suspended and then injured upon reinstatement), to the offensive line injuries (and injuries all over), to poor head coaching by Adam Gase, and poor drafting by a GM that was fired before the season even began... 2019 has been a disaster from day one for NY. The Dolphins and Patriots are more or less where you would expect them to be. Some thought Miami would go win-less, but I figured they would scratch out a W eventually facing the right team at the right time (now they've actually won two straight against the Jets and Colts). Some thought the Pats would go undefeated, but I didn't feel this roster was as dominant as some of their previous ones. New England is currently more banged up than any other year I can remember in recent history besides the one Brady went down, they should win the division but Super Bowl aspirations may become more challenging if health doesn't improve... never count out Bill Belichick though. The Bills is where I've really been on the money so far. I thought they could make the playoffs, but had them losing out the race to the Jets by a nose. With the Jets out of the picture the Bills are already three games off of the 9 game win total I predicted (which some would have deemed too high), they could even hit double digits in a weak AFC as they race for a wildcard spot, but I'm not so sure they will.

NE remaining schedule- @Eagles, vsCowboys, @Texans, vsChiefs, @Bengals, vsBills, vsDolphins

BUF remaining schedule- @Dolphins, vsBroncos, @Cowboys, vsRavens, @Steelers, @Pats, vsJets

Adjusted Playoff Prediction- Patriots (13-3), Bills (9-7)

Both teams have tough remaining schedules, but the Pats should compete for the #1 seed even if they lose two or three down the stretch. I don't think it will take more than 9 wins to get a wildcard in the AFC this season, Josh Allen plays his first career playoff game in Winter 2020.

AFC North:

My Early Summer Predictions- 1. Browns 2. Ravens 3. Steelers 4. Bengals

My Week 1 Predictions- 1. Browns (11-5) 2. Ravens (8-8) 3. Steelers (8-8) 4. Bengals (2-14)

Week 11 Reality- 1. Ravens (7-2) 2. Steelers (5-4) 3. Browns (3-6) 4. Bengals (0-9)

Yes, I did it, I fell for the Cleveland Browns hype. I booked my ticket this Summer, hopped aboard, and road that train as it flew off the tracks and cascaded into the cavernous abyss below. Why I did it confuses me more now than it did at the time, but it actually wasn't the offense that I fell in love with. I thought they would be decent, sure. I thought Odell would finally win something, I thought Landry would excel in the slot with less pressure, I thought Chubb force manageable third downs, and finally, I thought Baker would extend drives. I knew their offensive line would be worse after the inexplicable Kevin Zeitler for Olivier Vernon trade, but I didn't think it would be THIS bad. Baker and Darnold are currently suffering from the same syndrome, Sophomore Sacks, and it is the worst way to develop a franchise quarterback. Anyway, back to why I picked the Browns. I fell in love with their defense more than anything this Summer. Last year their D was the part of the team winning them games. No one could run on their four man front, Garrett was a nightmare for opposing QB's, Ward looked like a top corner in his rookie year. Injuries have affected the D though, and players that have remained healthy have simply under-performed. Maybe former DC Gregg Williams' influence can be measured by that and that alone. Rookie head coach Freddie Kitchens has also looked lost in his first term. Tonight is do or die for Cleveland at home (first of two with Pittsburgh in a three week span), they must win. The Bengals were an easy one for me this season. Let's just say I took the under, and it wasn't a high mark to beat. With a rookie head coach who I thought was under-qualified and almost no positive off-season acquisitions, plus a mountain of injuries (included a decimated offensive line right out of the gate)... this one was a no-brainer. My Steelers prediction has been on the money so far too, I didn't think they would make the playoffs, but I also didn't expect them to fall off the map completely. I respect Mike Tomlin as a coach, his teams always compete (even without Roethlisberger, AB, Bell, Conner at times, etc.). The Ravens were the trickiest one for me. At 7-2 with an MVP candidate in Lamar Jackson, they have exceeded my expectations. I didn't think his style offense was sustainable against NFL defenses, but I give Coach John Harbaugh a ton of credit for building around his star talent. The Ravens start three tight ends most snaps, and sometimes add a sixth offensive lineman. They dare you to stop the run, and most teams can't. Then if they finally do, a deep ball threat like rookie Marquise Brown can end you. I also thought the defense would be worse without leaders like CJ Moseley, Suggs, and Za'Darius Smith, but the loaded secondary has been good enough to account for average replacements up the middle.

BAL remaining schedule- vsTexans, @Rams, vs49ers, @Bills, vsJets, @Browns, vsSteelers

PIT remaining schedule- @Browns, @Bengals, vsBrowns, @Cards, vsBills, @Jets, @Ravens

CLE remaining schedule-vsSteelers, vsDolphins, @Steelers, vsBengals, @Cards, vsRavens, @Bengals

Adjusted Playoff Prediction- Ravens (12-4), Browns (8-8), Steelers (8-8)

The Browns easiest stretch is ahead of them. If they can get rolling they still have a shot at the playoffs, but it starts tonight at home against Pittsburgh. The Ravens have a legitimate chance at a playoff bye, but it won't be a cakewalk. The Steelers D has risen to form a new steel curtain, one that forces lots of turnovers, but I don't trust Mason Rudolph to lead this team in the big moment.

AFC South:

My Early Summer Predictions- 1. Colts 2. Jaguars 3. Titans 4. Texans

My Week 1 Predictions- 1. Jaguars (10-6) 2. Texans (10-6) (WC) 3. Titans (7-9) 4. Colts (6-10)

Week 11 Reality- 1. Texans (6-3) 2. Colts (5-4) 3. Titans (5-5) 4. Jaguars (4-5)

As you can see, I struggled with this division, switching back and forth multiple times throughout the Summer. I ended up going with the Jaguars, under the assumption Foles would be able to move the ball and their infamous Sacksonville defense from two years ago would shine brighter than ever with corners Ramsey and Bouye behind them. Well Foles proceeded to break his collarbone week 1, and although the legend of Gardner Minshew has grown in his place, Foles is the better QB. Minshew performed admirably don't get me wrong, and his mustache powered style brought some flair to Jacksonville, but the team may be better than 4-5 if Foles had a healthy season. In the time he's been out, the defense has held sturdy for the most part, but Ramsey's trade demands changed everything for me, without him they may be better off in the locker room but they aren't the same team on the field. The Titans are such a .500 team, and they're proving that again this season. I'm glad they made the move to Tannehill, I called for this many times this preseason and they've been more competitive since the Mariota benching. The Colts is a case where I should of trusted my gut, but let others dissuade me. I can't prove it to you here, but I argued with a few different people this year on whether Jacoby Brissett could lead the Colts to the playoffs or not. I argued in favor of Brissett, saying he was good enough to do so behind a #1 offensive line in football and a decent run game/defense. Brian Hoyer couldn't lead the Colts past Miami last weekend, so credit the job Jacoby (with the help of head coach Frank Reich) has done with a banged up receiver core even if they come up short in the end. The Texans top the division as of now. When I put them 4th in my off-season article, it was with the asterisk that I didn't think their key players could stay healthy. Watson has. JJ Watt, Lamar Miller and Will Fuller have not. Watson is the key though, and the trade for left tackle Laremy Tunsil really helped keep Deshaun in the game this year.

HOU remaining schedule- @Ravens, vsColts, vsPats, vsBroncos, @Titans, @Bucs, vsTitans

IND remaining schedule- vsJags, @Texans, vsTitans, @Bucs, @Saints, vsPanthers, @Jags

TEN remaining schedule- BYE, vsJags, @Colts, @Raiders, vsTexans, vsSaints, @Texans

JAX remaining schedule- @Colts, @Titans, vsBucs, vsChargers, @Raiders, @Falcons, vsColts

Adjusted Playoff Prediction- Texans (9-7), Colts (8-8), Titans (7-9), Jaguars (7-9)

Woah Nelly! This is anybody's race with seven weeks left to play. The Texans still have two with the Titans and one with the Colts, the Jags have two with the Colts and one with the Titans, and the Colts/Titans still have four division games left each! With every record around .500 besides the Texans at 6-3, anything could happen.

AFC WEST:

My Early Summer Predictions- 1. Chargers 2. Chiefs 3. Raiders 4. Broncos

My Week 1 Predictions- 1.Chiefs (11-5) 2.Chargers (10-6) (WC) 3.Broncos (7-9) 4.Raiders (5-11)

Week 11 Reality- 1. Chiefs (6-4) 2. Raiders (5-4) 3. Chargers (4-6) 4. Broncos (3-6)

I kept going back and forth on the Raiders. Will Gruden turn them into a competitor, or will they be another Hard Knocks team that collapses under the focus of the TV Drama. If anything, watching the HBO series usually convinces me the team has a chance at success, but this season did anything but. With the whole Antonio Brown mess and the distractions everywhere around camp, I went from picking the Raiders to finish near .500, to having them sink to 5-11. I guess I was being too dramatic, but Hard Knocks tricked me yet again, except in the opposite way they usually do. The Raiders seem to be more cohesive without AB, players like Darren Waller and Tyrell Williams have really stepped up in his place, not to mention rookie workhorse RB Josh Jacobs. The Raiders revamped a decent O-line this year too, which has a lot to do with their success, but the defense still worries me with a revolving depth chart due to injury. The Chargers have been the other surprise. The team that was king of close games last season can't seem to buy a win in one this year, losing more in heartbreaking fashion than anyone in 2019. Whether it's kicking blunders, a fluctuating game-plan on offense, an O-line that gets sliced and diced like Swiss cheese, or a defense that is bruised and battered, these Chargers just aren't the same team... and even more alarming, Rivers' play has dropped dramatically. The Broncos were an easier team to predict this year. I probably gave them a couple wins too many at 7-9 but they were always a middle of the pack team and if one or two plays go differently early on, they have four or five wins right now. They are on track to finish with about five W's or so which works for where they're at in their rebuild. My original pick was the Chargers to take the division, before preseason even began, but I smartly re-thought that decision. Once I realized Tyreek Hill wouldn't be suspended, I got back on the Chiefs band-wagon and took KC to win 11 games. Ironically, Hill got injured shortly after, along with Watkins and eventually Mahomes. All the guys I thought the Chiefs couldn't win without, they WERE without out some point and time this season, and they still lead the West. This is really a tribute to the coaching of Andy Reid, one of the all-time greats.

KC remaining schedule- @Chargers, BYE, vsRaiders, @Pats, vsBroncos, @Bears, vsChargers

OAK remaining schedule- vsBengals, @Jets, @Chiefs, vsTitans, vsJags, @Chargers, @Broncos

LAC remaining schedule- vsChiefs, BYE, @Broncos, @Jags, vsVikings, vsRaiders, @Chiefs

Adjusted Playoff Prediction- Chiefs (10-6), Raiders (9-7), Chargers (6-10)

I love the Raiders schedule towards the end here with four home games and five out of seven games facing teams with sub .500 records at this moment (Titans are almost a 6th at .500). I flirted with the Raiders reaching 10 wins this season, but in the end I think they'll lose one or two somewhere along the way in a game that they should win on paper, so I put them at 9-7. The Chiefs should wrap this thing up with no glaring opponents besides week 14 @NewEngland. I also considered having them take home 11 victories rather than 10, but in a similar fashion to Oakland, I think KC has an imperfect team this year, and imperfect teams lose a game here or there when you least expect them to. I put the Chargers schedule up just to see if they might have a Browns type run on the horizon with some easier matchups, but the worst may be yet to come for LA this season as it only gets tougher from here on out.

BRIEF AFC WILDCARD RECAP:

Current AFC Playoff Picture

1. Patriots (8-1) BYE 2. Ravens (7-2) BYE 3. Texans (6-3) 4. Chiefs (6-4)

WC1- Bills (6-3) WC2- Steelers (5-4)

IN THE HUNT- Raiders (5-4), Colts (5-4), Titans (5-5), Jaguars (4-5), Chargers (4-6), Broncos (3-6), Browns (3-6), Dolphins (2-7), Jets (2-7)

Original *Week 1* AFC Playoff Prediction

1. Patriots (12-4) BYE 2. Chiefs (11-5) BYE 3. Browns (11-5) 4. Jaguars (10-6)

WC1- Texans (10-6) WC2- Chargers (10-6)

My NEW AFC Playoff Picture

1. Patriots (13-3) BYE 2. Ravens (12-4) BYE 3. Chiefs 10-6 4. Texans (9-7)

WC1- Bills (9-7) WC2- Raiders (9-7)

MISS, ON THE BUBBLE- Steelers (8-8), Browns (8-8), Colts (8-8), Titans (7-9), Jaguars (7-9)

Clearly I was a little off in the AFC upsets department this year with a few of my fliers (my NFC week 1 picks were much stronger but not perfect either)... I've been dead on about certain teams so far though (Bills, Bengals, and Steelers to name a few). I do think the Browns will finish strong, but that pick was still a bust more or less if they don't make the playoffs, as were the Jets, Chargers, and Jaguars. The Pats, Chiefs, and Texans picks have been accurate, but those were simpler selections to make. The main teams that have proved me wrong so far are the Baltimore Ravens and Oakland Raiders...

Whatever the outcome, the AFC is front-loaded with talent this season which should make for an exhilarating playoffs. Young dynamic franchise QB's (Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson, Deshaun Watson, Josh Allen) will do battle with each other while the stoic veteran of old (Tom Brady) awaits his challenger. Hall of fame caliber head coaches (Bill Belichick, John Harbaugh, Andy Reid, Jon Gruden, Mike Tomlin) will smirk at the opportunity to test their wisdom and grit against one another. Explosive offenses look to be at the forefront of this conference, but can teams like Buffalo, Pittsburgh, Tennessee, and New England aim to prove that it's still defense that wins championships. Will 2020 be the story of a dark horse, a new era lead by a newcomer, or another notch in a dynasty of legend? Winter is almost upon us, and the NFL playoffs come with it.