Forecast for SuperBowl LIV
- iAmMizz!
- Jan 4, 2020
- 7 min read
My original prediction this Summer had the New Orleans Saints beating the New England Patriots down in Miami to win Super Bowl LIV. Since then, a lot has changed. I wasn't going to do a playoff bracket, being that I already did a preseason prediction and week 10 playoff pictures for each conference, but then I saw some other brackets and couldn't help myself...
WILDCARD ROUND:
I've been high on Buffalo all season. I had them missing the playoffs by a game in my preseason preview, but if not for my Jets fandom clouding my judgement, I would have had them as a wildcard from the start. When breaking down these two teams, I give Buffalo the edge at almost every position. Defensive line, Buffalo. Linebackers, Even. Secondary, Buffalo by a mile. Offensive line, Buffalo. Running backs, Buffalo. Wide Receivers, Houston, but because of the disparity in the two secondaries this becomes more of a wash (especially if Fuller is out). Quarterback, probably take Deshaun over Allen but they're extremely similar in their style of play and there's not much separating the two. Coaching, I'll take Buffalo. The main edge Houston has is home field, otherwise I would have no doubt. I cannot see the Texans putting up many points on this defense, Watson should be under pressure all day and Hopkins will have his hands full with top corner Tre'Davious White. I don't see anyone matching up well with John Brown and Devin Singletary on the other side of the ball.
Bills over Texans 24-16
Based on history I know who I should pick today. Tom Brady in New England in the playoffs. Bill Belichick with a concentrated prep week for an opponent. Inexperienced postseason opponents in Ryan Tannehill and the Titans. The Patriots will find a way to win this game, right? To be honest, gun to my head I take New England, but I also don't think this aging Pats team that has looked weaker than ever before down the stretch will be able to win two straight if they survive a home game. I despise the Patriots, I won't deny it, but I do think people are overlooking the Titans a little. This is going to be a defensive game that comes down to which team makes less mistakes. Brady should be able to outperform Tannehill in that regard, but over the last month or so that has not been the case. They will try and take Derrick Henry out of the game, no doubt about it, but can they? Baltimore ran all over the Pats in a similar match up. I also like Vrabel as a coach that could upset Belichick. He's a pupil of his who bulldozed the Pats during their 2018 meeting. AJ Brown has to make a couple big plays whether receiving or rushing and the Titans must blitz Brady to win.
Titans over Patriots 23-20
The wildcard game between the two bruised and battered teams... there's always one. My first instinct was to take the Seahawks, they've been the better team all year, but there's something about the Eagles under the Pederson era when they're at home in the playoffs as underdogs. Sure, Nick Foles is usually involved in these recent scenarios, but Wentz has been incredible this year. He would never get the votes because of his overall numbers, but if you consider the team of injuries that he has carried to the playoffs this season, you could make a case that he deserves to be in the MVP conversation (not win it, just in the conversation). Across from him is a man who's been in that conversation all year long, Russell Wilson. Besides the QB's, this will also be a battle of two of the best coaches in the NFL (Pete Carroll and Doug Pederson). So which team can better overcome all the injuries? Well the Eagles have already been doing it. The fill-ins have experience and better yet, they have a growing confidence and swagger. Marshawn Lynch on the other hand looks out of shape, and the Seahawks D no more impressive than the Eagles. Tough call, but I got to go with my gut here, Hawks start the game slow on the road and the comeback falls short.
Eagles over Seahawks 28-25
The only game that would really surprise me if I'm wrong. The Vikings cannot move the ball when the run is shut down, and they are playing an underrated stout run defense led by Cameron Jordan, one of the least talked about superstars in this league. Then in the air you have top receiver Diggs matched up with Lattimore, pound for pound one of the best man-to-man lock down corners in this league. Behind him Janoris Jenkins and Eli Apple should be able to handle an out of whack Thielen and Bisi Johnson. On the other side of the ball you have Michael Thomas against a pretty terrible secondary and an offensive line that can overpower the Vikings. This could not be a more perfect opponent for NOLA in round one. I didn't even mention the experience of Brees vs. Cousins.
Saints over Vikings 33-16
DIVISIONAL ROUND:
No offense to the Titans, but I don't see any of the teams in the AFC Wildcard round beating the Ravens in Baltimore round two. Having said that, this would be a smash mouth ground a pound football game. I just cannot see the Titans defense keeping up with Lamar Jackson and this unit like they could against a weakened Patriots offense.
Ravens over Titans 38-17
This should be a closer game than the match up above, but to me there are just two clear teams in the AFC this year. The Ravens and Chiefs pound for pound are better than the rest of the conference and I don't think it's that close. With home field advantage and a week of rest, that margin widens. Mahomes will struggle to move the ball at times, but in the end the Chiefs will grind out some points behind Kelce and Hill, plus I also see their defense baiting Josh Allen into some turnovers in front of a raucous KC crowd.
Chiefs over Bills 27-20
The Eagles with injuries at home could maybe overcome a Seahawks team that has had just as many key losses, but there's no way they march across country on the road and take down the Niners, who are a complete football team. Wentz may wish he never won round one with the beating he takes from this SF defense.
49ers over Eagles 23-10
This may be the best game we see in the first two rounds of action. If it were in New Orleans, I'd give the Saints the nod without much hesitation, but with the tiebreak ending the way it did a fresh Packers squad will play at home in Lambeau. Brees vs. Rodgers, Jones vs. Kamara, Thomas vs. Jaire Alexander, Adams vs. Lattimore, Jordan and the D-line vs. Bakhtiari and a physical O-line, Z'darius and Preston Smith vs. Ramczyk and another top blocking unit. This could be an instant classic. The Saints are a different team away from the dome offensively, but I give them this victory on the back of their defense and kicker Wil Lutz.
Saints over Packers 18-13
CONFERENCE FINALS:
This game has every right to be a top billing, headline producing, match for the ages between two future NFL MVP's entering the prime of their careers. Even head coaches Andy Reid and John Harbaugh could both be future hall of famers some day. I take Mahomes over Jackson in the QB discussion, he's more well-rounded, at least so far, and Reid/Harbaugh is a wash... but I don't think that's what we should be focusing on in this game. There is no way the Chiefs D-line and below average linebacker crew can keep up with the three tight end punch you in the mouth football style of Baltimore. Mark Ingram and Lamar have MASSIVE days on the ground in what ends up being a Ravens rout.
Ravens over Chiefs 38-21
To me, the more challenging road game for the Saints is in Green Bay, but the better opponent is easily the Niners. During the regular season, these teams had a shootout in NOLA and the most shocking part of this mind-blowing game was that Jimmy G actually out-shot Brees in his dome. I was also surprised how the San Fran D played in that game, and I don't expect it do happen twice. The best way to slow Brees is to get after him, he doesn't move the pocket well and the Falcons have proven that if you bum-rush him, he struggles. Richard Sherman will look to get revenge on Michael Thomas, while Deebo Samuel and George Kittle continue to give the Saints fits on defense. I think this game will be the opposite of the first meeting, aside from the outcome.
49ers over Saints 24-20
SUPER BOWL:
I know it isn't flashy to pick the two number one seeds, but I usually don't and this year more than most I feel the two best teams are the two with home field throughout the playoffs, so I got my upsets out of the way early I guess. To reiterate, I had the Saints winning the SB back in the Summertime, but the Niners have been on my radar since Spring and were my initial pick to win the NFC West. They finally have a healthy season, which was my largest concern, and it thrusts them back into a 2013 Super Bowl rematch, nicknamed the HarBowl, when brothers John and Jim faced off. Now Kyle Shanahan calls the shots in San Francisco, and he gets his crack at John and the Ravens (which is also redemption for the former Falcons OC in his Super Bowl loss to the Pats). This defense is the only team I can see standing toe to toe with the offensive unit Greg Roman has built in Baltimore. Sherman can take Hollywood Brown out of the game. A play-making D-line made up of Buckner, Bosa, Ford, Armstead, and more with Fred Warner behind them can keep up with his rushing attack, while I believe their three-headed rushing attack (Mostert, Breida, Coleman) can move the ball on the Ravens D which is better blitzing against the pass. In an epic Super Bowl that provides key contributions on all sides of the ball, I'll give it to the most complete NFL team.
49ers lift the Lombardi over the Ravens, 28-25
Till next season NFL fans...
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